GF strategy: A-shares will meet rising risks

GF strategy: A-shares will meet rising risks

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  Original title:[Guangfa Strategy]Risk Appetite Takes Over “Discount Rate Bull Market”-Five Minutes on the Weekend (February Issue 4) Source: GF Strategy Research Dai Kang (Jin Qilin Analyst) Zheng Kai (Jin Qilin Analyst)) Summary of the report ● The discount rate is driving the slowdown of the financial supply side, and 12 reports in the beginning of the year continue to recommend the growth of technology.

At the beginning of 19, we proposed that the discount rate would drive down the “financial supply side slow bull” of A shares. In the report before the opening of the Spring Festival, after the outbreak of the epidemic, “the core logic in the next stage will switch to a more friendly change in the denominator”The value of the A-shares has exceeded 1 trillion. The turnover of the A-shares in the last two rounds broke through the center and exceeded 1 trillion. They appeared at the end of November 2014 (the surge in December) and the end of February 19 (March Zhongyang).Interest rate + risk premium) driven downward.

  ● How to interpret the “discount rate bull market” in 14-15?

— Interest rates led the way, and risk appetite took over.

  Stage one, 14.

1-14.

11 The risk-free interest rate fell by 110BP, with a loose margin; 14.

11-15.

6. The risk-free interest rate center is flat while the index doubles, and the risk expectation value.

The characteristics of the risk preference relay: ① Residents and leveraged funds entered the market frantically, and fund issuance was hot.

② The volume of M & A and restructuring on the ChiNext has opened up a space for performance imagination.

③ Changes in the rising structure of the stock market, which value “forward space, long-term performance” is better than “spot performance”, and the company with a higher “next year profit forecast” factor outperforms.

  ● In 19 years, the “discount rate slow cow” was opened — interest rates led the downward trend, but the risk appetite was “owed to the east wind.”

  The difference between the “financial supply-side slow bull”: ① “flooding floods” are difficult to reproduce, and the interest rate center is slowly moving downwards; ② financial supply-side reform is to find a balance between “prevention of risks” and “prevention of risks to deal with risks” and replaceRepeatedly, risk appetite is only gradually repaired.

Therefore, the overall improvement of risk appetite in the early stage of 19 “is still owing to Dongfeng”: ① the two conditions for residents to enter the market only triggered one of them, and the lack of a “money-making effect” in the initial period of the securities transfer from bear to bull;The size of GEM mergers and acquisitions is still not high. ③ The growth structure of the stock market has changed (technological growth has begun to manifest), but it is still dominated by consumption-aware varieties (consumption).

  ● At present, A-shares will usher in a drive for increased risk appetite, and logic and investment opportunities will change accordingly.

  The discount rate consists of two parts: interest rate and risk appetite.

Looseness has become a consensus in the market. Residents must meet two conditions to enter the market (the actual interest rate is lower and lower, and the money-making effect). The money-making effect is basically satisfied. It is close to November 2014, which is better than the beginning of 19. The increase in market risk appetite will drive a new roundResidents enter the market, and refinancing is loose. The change in the stock market’s rising structure is also confirmed from the side.

  ● Continue to be bullish, “forward performance” is better than “spot performance”, and technological growth is from “hard” and “soft”.

  Last week’s quarterly 19Q4 cargo policy report and Politburo meeting (“Prudent monetary policy needs to be more flexible and moderate” and “more”), the market no longer needs to doubt the loose tone of Q1, and the “financial supply side slow bull” driven by the downward discount rate is currentlyThe driving force of more meaningful risk expectations, forward performance is more important than current performance, and continues to be optimistic about the growth of technology.

Continue to configure: (1) consumer electronics, panel, LED, new energy vehicle theme; (2) high-definition video, games, cloud office, medical information (see 2.

18 “Embracing the Third Scenario Revolution in the World”); new recommendations (3) brokerage firms (including financial IT).

  ● Core hypothetical risks: Repeated epidemic control, economic growth exceeding expectations, and overseas uncertainty.

  The core text of the report 1 Express delivery (1) At the beginning of 19, we proposed that the discount rate would drive down the A-share “financial supply side slow bulls”. This week ‘s A-share turnover exceeded three trillion yuan for the third consecutive day.The upward over trillions appeared at the end of November 2014 and the end of February 19, respectively, both driven by the downward trend of the discount rate (interest rate + risk premium).

Our report before the opening of the Spring Festival proposed that after the epidemic shock, “the core logic will switch to a more friendly change in the denominator in the next stage. Historical experience shows that event shocks do not have a trend effect on the stock market. The deterioration of the epidemic damages the discount rate and drives the financial supply side down.”Slow Cow’s Main Logic”, since the beginning of the year, we have continued to recommend 12 technology core growth reports—1.

12 “Down with a discount rate to increase the” Winter Warmth “” prompts “Down to increase the discount rate.”

19 “Why the New Year’s Market Turns to Technological Growth” prompts that “adequate interbank liquidity will strengthen the three-factor resonance of technology growth stocks”; 2.

2 “03 is a mirror, more thinking than re-engraving history” prompts “It is recommended to use the opportunity of risk reduction and liquidity staged discounts to allocate technological growth”;

5 “The bottom is now” prompts “Seize the opportunity of oversold rebound and continue to recommend the growth of technology.”

In the process, we also released a series of special reports, focusing on new energy vehicles and 5G to continuously recommend investment opportunities in the technology growth segment.

This week’s blockbuster “Scenario Revolution” kicks off. Two reports provide an in-depth analysis of “embracing the third scenario revolution in the world.”

We recommend that investors pay attention to the gradual progress of the investment guide, and the logic of technology development from “hard” and “soft”.

  This week, the total A transaction volume has broken through trillions. The last two rounds of A-share transaction volume broke through the center and surpassed the trillions. At the end of November 2014 (the surge in December) and the end of February 19 (March Zhongyang), exactlyBoth are driven downward by the discount rate (interest rate + risk premium), and we analyze and compare the corresponding scenarios.

  (B) how to interpret the classic “discount rate bull market” in 14-15 years?

-Interest rate led the way, risk appetite took over.

  The 14-15 year “discount rate bull market” (looseness + wind bias increase) is no stranger, and more and more investors compare the current technology stock market with it.

The market can be roughly divided into two phases: Phase I, the growth of January-November 2014, and the downward interest rate; and from December 2014 to June 15, the interest rate center remained flat, and the risks went up.In the first stage, from January to the end of November 2014, under the loose stimulus, the risk-free interest rate went from 4.

6% interest rate 3.

At this stage, Fengquan A will gradually increase by 37%, leading the sector to increase by 50-60% (military industry, computers, and brokers); in the second stage, the high point in December 2014 to June 15 will be no longer the risk-free interest rate centerContinue to fall, interest rates from 3.

5% to 3.

At this time, the growth rate of Fengquan A reached an alarming 125%. It can be seen that the downward trend of the discount rate has significantly increased the positioning range from risk. The leading sector has moved from construction and non-silver to TMT, and the interval income has exceeded 150% (computer, construction, Media, textile clothing), among which the outstanding performance of the construction and textile clothing sector are not the logic of the industry itself, but driven by the theme of “1 Belt and 1 Road” and “Internet +”.

  How to enter the second stage with a reasonable discount rate?

What are the characteristics of “risk appetite relay”?

① Residents enter the market, and the issuance of funds is hot.

Residents opened new A-share accounts, the balance of the two financings, and the amount of bank transfers began to increase sharply in November 2014, indicating that incremental funds such as residents and leverage have begun to enter the market; the Xinfa Fund was hot, from December 2014 to June 15The average new common stock + hybrid fund share reached as high as 150 billion yuan per month over the 7-month period (compared to a monthly average of only 10 billion yuan between November 13 and November 2014).

② M & A and restructuring volume, opening up performance imagination space.

In the second half of 2014, the M & A and reorganization policy was further relaxed. In October, the CSRC issued two consecutive documents to support M & A and reorganization. GEM mergers and acquisitions significantly increased: 15-year Q1-Q2 GEM mergers and acquisitions exceeded the growth rate of more than 200%, and the average quarterly M & A size exceeded300 billion, the previous 14-year average doubled.

③ Changes in the rising structure of the stock market, the market valued “forward performance, long-term space” rather than “immediate performance”.

The gap between small market capitalization and large market capitalization companies has further widened, and the theme is active (state-owned enterprise reform, 1 Belt and 1 Road, Internet +). Among the stock market factors, companies with higher “next year profit forecasts” have an advantage, meaning that the market is valued “far””Period performance”, textile services, light industry and other only cross-border mergers and acquisitions brought “vision space” stocks and industries began to lead.

  (3) The “discount rate bull market” in the early 19th was bumpy-interest rates went down, but the risk appetite was “not yet in the east”.

  Early 19th global risk-on (see 1.

6 “Global Risks-On, A-shares spring restlessness starts”). As you can see, global tightening has shifted to easing + risk transfer to promote the decline in joint participation discount rate, and then we propose that the “financial supply side slow bull” is opened.

Understand the difference between the “financial supply-side slow bull” opened in 19 years and the 14-15 discount rate bull market: ① The “flooding flood” under financial supply-side reforms does not reappear, and the interest rate center slowly moves downward; ② risk substitution instead of “take over””The financial supply-side reform is to find a balance between” prevention of risks “and” prevention of risks to deal with risks “. Repeatedly, the risks can only be gradually repaired.

  Therefore, the three characteristics when the height of the increased risk in early 19 and 14-15 years are called “still owed to the east wind”: ①The two conditions for residents to enter the market only trigger one of them, and there is still a lack of a “make money effect”.The two conditions are “reduction in the real interest rate of the residential sector” and “profit effect of the stock market”. The former condition was met at the beginning of 19, but the other conditions did not exist yet, and the stock market was still at the starting point of a new round of bull and bull switch.

② The tightening of M & A and restructuring has eased, but the scale of GEM M & A is still not high.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the strict restrictions on mergers and acquisitions and reorganization of the Securities Regulatory Commission began to loosen, but the size of the Q1 GEM M & A was still low.

③ The rising structure of the stock market has changed, but it is still dominated by the current performance.

In the first quarter of 19G, semiconductors, livestock and poultry breeding, which focused on long-term performance, began to grow, but industries with more definite current results such as liquor and white electricity still dominated.

  (IV) We recommend that the current logic and investment opportunities may be progressively changed. It is still a “slow bull on the financial supply side” where the discount rate is down. However, unlike in early 19th, after the consensus on loose expectations is basically formed, the market is veryMay be ushered in another driving force-increased market risk appetite!

  First, “looseness” has become a market consensus.

According to the 19Q4 air cargo government affairs report released last week (strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments and increasing credit support for epidemic prevention and control), this week ‘s Politburo meeting (“Prudent monetary policy needs to be more flexible and appropriate” adds the word “more”), Both indicate that 20Q1 can still maintain optimistic expectations on currency and credit.

  In fact, increasing market risk appetite will drive a new round of residents entering the market.

Residents must meet two conditions to enter the market (the actual interest rate goes down and the profit-making effect is low). At present, it is basically met, which is similar to the end of 14 and better than the beginning of 19.

The refinancing is loose, and the changes in the rising structure of the stock market have also been confirmed from the side.

The two conditions for residents to enter the market are basically met. Condition one. Historically, residents of several scales need to enter the market with real interest rates continuously falling for more than one year. In 2020, the real interest rate of the residential sector will fall by more than one year and reduce negative numbers.”Make Money Effect”.

After more than a year of “financial supply-side slow bulls”, the stock market’s money-making effect has been more significant since 19 years. The increase rate of Wonderful A conversion has exceeded 40%, which is close to 50% from January to November of 2014.The recovery from the bear market is obviously better. From the perspective of the new fund issuance scale, the current scale of residents ‘capital entering the market, if the future rises from risk to a growing market, the breadth of the market is expected to continue to break through with the promotion of residents’ capital entering the market.

In addition, other indicators of increased risk appetite are also more significant than in early 19th.

First, the new rules for refinancing are more relaxed than at the beginning of 19 (see 2).

16 “Impact of the Dingzeng Spring on the Capital Market”), although it is weaker than the M & A drivers in 13-15 years, the regulatory easing is still a hotbed of active M & A. Second, there has been some change in the growth 四川耍耍网 structure of the stock market since 2020.

“Visionary space” such as military industry, semiconductor design, and new energy vehicle industry chain is stronger than “immediate performance”.

  (5) Risk appetite for the bull market driven by the “declining discount rate”, how should the stock selection idea respond?

The market looks at “forward performance” over “spot performance”, which is why we are at 2.

18 began to recommend “embracing the third scene revolution in the world”.

For about 14 to 15 years, the market expected to enter the risk market places more emphasis on “vision space” and “forward performance”. Therefore, the growth of science and technology is accompanied by other styles, and the “application scenario” within the growth of technology replaces hardware equipment.

We launched the heavy recommendation series “Embracing the Third Scenario Revolution in the World” this week, which is also based on the change in investment thinking brought by the increase in risk appetite.

The global scene revolution has transformed into the route era of the “PC Internet scene revolution era-mobile internet scene revolution era”, and 5G will bring “the Internet of Everything scene revolution era”.How to grasp the rhythm under the idea of “scene revolution”?

One method is to grasp the big investment rhythm of application scenarios according to “eMBB-uRLLC-mMTC”. This year’s achievements are the first to achieve high-definition video, cloud games, online education, AR, etc.

The second method is to grasp the rhythm of revolutionary investment in staged scenarios based on six categories of catalysts; how to score various scenarios?

According to the order of 5G application landing, profit expectations, estimated levels, and fund allocation, the first grade: high-definition video, online education, cloud games.

Second gear: AR / VR, cloud office, connected car / autonomous driving.

Third level: telemedicine / medical information technology, industrial internet (see 2 for details).

18 “Scene Revolution” series one or two).

  (6) Continue to be bullish, and the growth of science and technology is from “hard” and “soft”.

The “financial supply-side slow bull” driven by the downward discount rate should pay more attention to the driving force of increasing risk appetite. Long-term performance is more important than current performance, and it continues to be optimistic about the growth of technology.

According to the 19Q4 Air Cargo Policy Report and Politburo meeting released last week (“prudent monetary policy needs to be more flexible and moderate” and the word “more” is added), the market no longer needs to doubt the loose tone of Q1. We have emphasized the looseness over the past yearThe driving market has gradually become the consensus of the market after the impact of the NCP epidemic, and investors may have increased risk. The residents ‘driving force to enter the market is far from sufficient, which is reflected in the trillion-dollar turnover in only three days and the sensitivity to transaction volume.Of brokerage stocks have not yet reached a new high for the current round (financial IT stocks have already performed well).

According to the risk appetite for improving investment ideas, we should pay more attention to the logic of long-term performance. We recommend that technology be gradually changed from “hard” to “soft”. We continue to recommend the “scenario revolution” of 5G applications.

Continue to configure: (1) consumer electronics, panel, LED, new energy vehicle themes; (2) high-definition video, games, cloud office, medical information; supplementary recommendations (3) brokerage companies (including financial IT).

  2 Important changes this week 2.

1 Real estate demand downstream of the Meso industry: Wind30 large and medium-sized city transaction data show that on February 21, 2020, the real estate transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities gradually decreased by 35.

78%, about -28 last week.

48% continued to decline, and the real estate transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities fell 90% month-on-month.

26%, a monthly decrease of 79.

08%, up 173 from the previous week.

40%.

  Automobile: According to the data of the Federation of Passenger Unions, the retail sales of passenger cars increased by 34% in the third week of February 2020, citing a slight decrease of 40% last week.

  Midstream steel manufacturing: The average price of steel prices fell this week, and the rebar price index fell by 1 this week.

68% to 3608.

49 yuan / ton, the price index of cold rolled steel fell by 1.

64% to 4204.

28 yuan / ton.

As of February 21, the rebar futures closed at 3,485 yuan / ton, an increase of 2 from February 14.
.

56%.

According to the data of Iron and Steel Network, the average daily output of crude steel from key iron and steel enterprises in early February was 193.

In 94 months, it was down by 2 from the end of January.

68%.

  Cement: National High Standard 42.

5The average price of cement dropped by 0 from last week.

36% to 458.

2 yuan / ton.

Among them, the average price in East China dropped by 0 from last week.

54% to 530.

71 yuan / ton, the Central South area fell 0.

98% to 503.

33 yuan / ton, North China remained unchanged at 445.
0 yuan / ton.
  Chemical industry: Domestic urea rose 2.

02% to 1720.

00 yuan / ton, light soda ash (East China) remained unchanged at 1500.

00 yuan / ton, PVC (acetylene method) fell 1.

82% to 6262.

00 yuan / ton, polyester filament (POY) fell 0.

10% to 7100.

00 yuan / ton, styrene butadiene rubber fell 3.

23% to 10057.

00 yuan / ton, pure MDI stabilized at 15,550.

00 yuan / ton, the international chemical prices, international ethylene fell 3.

30% to 732.

00 US dollars / ton, the international pure benzene stabilized at 731.

50 US dollars / ton, international urea rose 3.

33% to 217.

00 USD / ton.

  Excavator: In January, the sales volume of the company’s excavator was 9,942 units, compared with the 20155 unit in December last year, which decreased by 15 each year.

40%.

  Upstream resources coal and iron ore: This week’s iron ore prices have fallen, iron ore stocks have fallen, coal prices have risen, and coal stocks have increased.

The average domestic iron ore price fell by 1.

73% to 745.

58 yuan / ton, Taiyuan Gujiao car plate price including tax stabilized at 1440.

00 yuan / ton, Qinhuangdao Shanxi mixed outstanding liquidation 5500 prices rose 1 this week.

10% to 570.

40 yuan / ton; in terms of inventory, Qinhuangdao coal inventory increased by 12 this week.

31% to 520.

In April, the port’s iron ore inventory decreased by zero.

60% to 12394.

23 months.

  International Bulk: WTI is up 0 this week.

32% to 52.

At $ 75 / barrel, Brent gained 1.

26% to 57.

At $ 82 per barrel, the LME metal price index stabilized at 2862.

40, the commodity CRB index rose 0 this week.

97% to 174.

65; BDI index rose 16 this week.

94% to 497.

00.  2.

2 Stock market characteristics Stock market fluctuations: The Shanghai Composite Index rose sharply this week 4.

21%, the top three gains in the industry are electronics (13.

40%), national defense industry (12.

19%) and communication (11.

11%); the last three increases were medical and biological (1.

64%), banks (1.

60%) and real estate (0.

twenty two%).

  Dynamic estimation: The overall PE (TTM) of A shares this week from last week 17.

05 times rose to 17 this week.

96 times PB (LF) from last week 1.

64 times rose to 1 this week.

72 times; A shares excluding the financial services industry PE (TTM) from 27 last week.

82 times to 29 this week.

37 times PB (LF) from last week 2.

12 times rose to 2 this week.

24 times; GEM PE (TTM) from 195 last week.

76 times to 213 this week.

55 times, PB (LF) from last week 4.

22 times rose to 4 this week.

58 times; small and medium plate PE (TTM) 48 from last week.

21 times rose to 51 this week.

17 times, PB (LF) from last week 2.

83 times to 3 this week.

03 times; the total market value of A shares has increased by 5 from last week.

17%; the total market value of the A-shares excluding financial services industry increased by 5 from last week.

76%; required consumption relative to cyclical listed companies’ relative PB from last week 2.

45 times down to 2 this week.

41 times; relative PE (TTM) of ChiNext to CSI 300 from 16 last week.

61 times to 17 this week.

45 times; relative PB (LF) of ChiNext to CSI 300 from last week 2.

99 times rose to 3 this week.

14 times; equity risk premium from 0 last week.

73% dropped to 0 this week.

56%, stock market returns from last week 3.

60% dropped to 3 this week.

41%.

  Fund size: This week’s new equity + hybrid fund share is 718.

8.3 billion copies, up from 173 last week.
3.4 billion shares; this week the fund market gradually expanded with a net increase of 751.
8.1 billion copies.

  Active trading account ratio: According to the company’s data, as of February 22, the number of new investors for the week was 31.

570,000, ranked 20 last week.

630,000 fell.

  Balance of margin financing and securities lending: As of Thursday, February 20, the balance of margin financing and securities lending was 10,897.

22 billion, up 3 from last week.

64%.

  Restrictions on restricted shares: 796 restrictions were lifted this week.

2.1 billion yuan, 963 is expected to be lifted next week.

7.8 billion.

  Size non-reduction: The overall size of A shares this week is non-net reduction of 45.

07 billion, the industry that has reduced the most this week is pharmaceutical bio (-11.

2.9 billion), national defense industry (-7.

53 billion), food and beverage (-5.

1.3 billion), the industry that has increased the most this week is real estate (3.

4 billion), public utilities (0.

92 billion), commercial trade (0.

16 billion).

  Funds from the North: This week, the net inflow of funds from the North China Stock Connect to the North was 64.

9.4 billion yuan, a net inflow of 43 last week.

7 billion yuan.

  AH premium index: The A / H share premium index rose to 125 this week.

82, the A / H share premium index was 123 last week.

73.
  2.
3Liquidity termination February 22, the transition this week, a total of 4 reverse repurchases expired, accumulating a total of $ 122 billion; 1 reverse repurchase, a total of $ 100 billion; issued 1 budget note swap for 12 months,A total of 1.5 billion; the net return of open market operations (including treasury cash) totaled 920 billion.

  As of February 20, 2020, R007 was down 4 this week.

61BP to 2.

29%, SHIB0R overnight interest rate increased by 9.

90BP to 1.

355%; the direct interest rates of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta have fallen this week, and the Yangtze River Delta has fallen by 6.

00BP to 2.

40%, the Pearl River Delta dropped by 9.

00BP to 2.

41%; term spreads are up 1 this week.

43BP to 0.

92%; credit spread decreased by 4.

07BP to 0.

71%.
  2.

4 Overseas United States: On Tuesday, the US February NAHB house price index was 74, lower than the previous value of 75 and lower than the predicted value of 75.

The US January PPI was announced on Wednesday: final demand increased by 0 sequentially.

5%, higher than the previous value of 0.

2%; January PPI: Final demand increased by 2.

1%, higher than the previous value of 1.

3%; core PPI rose by 0 in January from the previous month.

3%, higher than the previous value of 0.

2%; core PPI exceeded 0 in January.

7%, unchanged from the previous value; New housing starts in January: 109 private houses (thousands).

1, lower than the previous value of 109.

70.
Existing home sales in January in the U.S., which were announced on Friday, fell by a month.

27%, lower than the previous value of 3.

95%, lower than the predicted value of 1.

30%.

  Eurozone: The ZEW economic sentiment index for February in the Eurozone was released on Tuesday.

40, lower than the previous value of 25.

60, lower than the predicted value of 30.

00.
Eurozone services PMI (initial value) for February announced on February 52.

80, higher than the previous value of 52.

50, higher than the predicted value of 52.

20; February ‘s PMI (initial value) 49 for Eurozone manufacturing.

10, higher than the previous value of 47.

90, higher than the predicted value of 47.

50; Eurozone comprehensive PMI (initial value) 51 in February.

60, higher than the previous value of 51.

30, higher than the predicted value of 51.

00; EU CPI rose by 1 in January.

70%, higher than the previous value of 1.

60%; In January, the CPI in the euro zone decreased by 1 from the previous month.

00%, lower than the previous value of 0.

3%, unchanged from the forecast value; in January the euro zone CPI rose by 1 year on year.

40%, higher than the previous value of 1.

30%, in line with the forecast.

  United Kingdom: Unemployment rate in the UK for December was announced on Tuesday 3.

80, unchanged from the previous value.

Wednesday announced that the UK’s January CPI fell by 0 from the previous month.

3%, lower than the previous value of 0.
0%; CPI continued to rise in January.
80%, higher than the previous value of 1.

30%; Core CPI in January decreased by 0 from the previous month.

55%, lower than the previous value of 0%; core CPI rose by 1 in January.

60%, higher than the previous value of 1.

40%.

  Japan: 142 GDP for the fourth quarter of 2019 announced on Monday.

9 trillion, a decrease of 1 from the previous month.

60%, lower than the previous value of 0.

1%, a decline of 0 per year.

40%, lower than the previous value of 1.

70%.

It was announced on Friday that January CPI fell by 0 from the previous month.

10%, lower than the previous value of 0.

00%, rising by 0 every year.

70%, lower than the previous value of 0.

80%.

  Overseas stock markets this week: The S & P 500 is down 1 this week.

25% closed at 3337.

75 points; FTSE London fell 0.

07% closed at 7403.

92 points; German DAX fell 1.

20% closed at 13579.

33 points; Nikkei 225 fell 1.

27% closed at 23386.

74 points; Hang Seng fell 1.

82% closed at 27308.

81.

  2.5 Macro social financing scale: The supplementary social financing scale in January was 5.

07 trillion yuan, higher than the previous value of 2.

1 trillion, an increase of 39908 billion over the same period last year.

  Money supply: At the end of January, the broad money (M2) balance was 202.

31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

4%, 0 lower than the end of last month.

3 digits, unchanged from the same period of the previous year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 54.

55 trillion yuan, unchanged from the same period of the previous year, with an increase of 0% for many years, which is 4 lower than the end of last month and the same period of the previous year.

4 and 0.

4 averages.

  RMB loans: RMB loans increased in January3.
34 trillion, up from 1 last month.
14 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan over the same period last year.

  3A list of data to be released next week Highlights next week: US GDP (forecast) for the fourth quarter of 2019, US core PCE price index in January, China ‘s official manufacturing PMI in February Wednesday, February 26: US new house sales in January

  Thursday, February 27: US fourth quarter 2019 GDP (forecast).

  Friday, February 28: January American branch distribution income, US personal consumption expenditure in January, US core PCE price index in January.

  Saturday, February 29: China ‘s February official manufacturing PMI and February ‘s non-manufacturing PMI.

  Risk reminder: The epidemic situation is still uncertain, which will further impact the economy and corporate profits.