CITIC Bank (601998): Two-pronged approach to replenish capital to open up space for asset expansion

CITIC Bank (601998): Two-pronged approach to replenish capital to open up space for asset expansion

Event: CITIC Bank announced on the evening of February 27, 2019 that it will publicly issue 40 billion convertible corporate bonds.

Investment suggestion: CITIC Bank’s transformation strategy is to advance from two wings to three driving forces. While maintaining the company’s advantage, the retail business’s short board has been optimized and improved; asset quality has continued to improve from the previous quarter, and bad generation has also performed well. After the issuance of 100 billion convertible bonds and the subsequent issuance of 40 billion preferred shares, capital will no longer be a constraint on asset expansion. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2018/19 will grow at a rate of 4 respectively.

6% and 4.

0%, EPS is 0.

88/0.

92 yuan / share, the current sustainable corresponding 18/19 PE is 7 respectively.

3 times / 7.

1X and PB are 0.

80X / 0.

73X.

The company has been dynamically evaluating 杭州夜网论坛 Hub 0 for 16 years.

9 times PB (we press 0 in 19 years.

The 9x PB estimated reasonable value is about 7.
.

95 yuan / share), considering the company’s solid fundamentals and better asset quality, we think it can improve the space and maintain the BUY rating.

Risk reminders: 1. The international economic and financial risks exceeded expectations; 2. The implementation of financial supervision exceeded expectations; 3. Economic growth exceeded expectations; 4. Asset quality deteriorated severely; 5. Trade friction escalated beyond expectations.

Core point of view: Continue to strengthen and enhance the retail business; the fundamentals are stable, and the asset quality continues to improve.1 In recent years, the company has vigorously developed the retail business while maintaining the advantages of the business.”One Body and Two Wings” gradually changed to “Three Driving Together” and achieved good results.

2. The 18-year performance express report The company achieved revenue of 1,648.

500 million, a five-year growth of 5.

20%, basically the same as 18Q3; realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 44.5 billion US dollars, a long-term growth of 4.

57%, down slightly in the early 18Q3; total assets increased by 6 for many years.

83%, a slight increase from the previous month; the asset quality continued to improve from the previous month, and the non-performing loan ratio decreased by 2bps to 1.

77%.

It is estimated that if all convertible bonds are converted into shares, the core tier one capital adequacy ratio will increase from 89bps to 9.

54% 1, as of the third quarter of 2018, the company’s core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio / capital adequacy ratio were 8 respectively.

65% / 12.

23%, it is statically estimated that if all the 40 billion convertible bonds issued this time are converted into shares, it is expected to increase 89bps / 88bps to 9 respectively.

54% / 13.

11%, reaching a higher level for joint-stock banks.

2. If the plan for the issuance of the 40 billion preferred shares announced by the company is considered again, if completed, it will effectively supplement and improve the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio to 11bps.

22% / 14.

00%.

After the completion of the issuance, the company’s capital pressure will be effectively relieved, which will provide effective support for the expansion of the company’s asset scale.

CITIC Convertible Bonds have sufficient debt base value1. From the coupon terms, the coupon rates of CITIC Convertible Bonds for six years are: 0.

3%, 0.

8%, 1.

5%, 2.

3%, 3.
2% and 4.
0%, the overdue redemption price is 111% of the face value (including the last year’s annual interest), relative to other banks’ convertible debt in 17-18, giving investors higher coupon compensation, according to February 27, 2019The discount rate of Japan-China Bond AAA corporate bonds calculates the net bond value of CITIC Convertible Bonds to be 94.

5 yuan, the debt base is thick.

2. The initial conversion price of CITIC Convertible Bonds is 7.

45 yuan / share, the main stock of CITIC Bank on February 27, 2019 closing price of 6.

45 yuan / share, corresponding to the initial conversion value of 86.

57 yuan, with an initial premium of 15.

5%.

1. CITIC Convertible Bonds will be given a full priority to old shareholders, and CITIC Convertible Bonds will be given a full priority to old shareholders. If old shareholders need to prevent their shares from being diluted, they will participate in the listing and placement.The probability of a sell-off is estimated to have a small impact on the price of convertible bonds.

2. CITIC Convertible Bonds have the expected certainty of conversion.

At present, the banking sector of a stock market is fully recovering, but it is expected to continue, with high security. At the same time, the net assets of the bank will maintain a steady growth of more than 10%.Proportionate index distribution, the conversion price will be reduced year by year, triggering the possibility of an early conversion.

Hikvision (002415): Integrated Material-Integration Platform to Plan IOT

Hikvision (002415): Integrated Material-Integration Platform to Plan IOT

More than just seeing, building a big platform for the integration of things and information in the era of the Internet of Things, maintaining a buy rating. Haikang was established in 2001. It started with security monitoring cards and DVR business.Upgrading to “understand”, the company gradually transformed into a video-centric intelligent IoT solution and big data service provider.

We believe that because video surveillance is a natural Internet of Things system, perception is the means, and application is the soul, the company has completed the intelligent upgrade of hardware in 15-19 years, and the establishment of the AI Cloud architecture has changed from “two pools, one library and fourThe advancement from “platform” to “material information fusion data platform” is expected to show the platform effect in the 5G Internet of Things era and become an ecological grower for multiple downstream applications. We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.

35/1.

67/2.

03 yuan with a target price of 46.

75-50.

09 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

The inflection point of single-quarter revenue growth in the second quarter of 1919 has arrived. The net interest rate in 1Q19-3Q19 continued to improve over the past 18 years. The company ‘s initiative to promote channel destocking has gradually completed under the background of deleveraging.Now that the turning point has been reached, we believe that the company is expected to return to high growth driven by intelligent and IoT applications.

At the same time, the company changed the structure of the seven industry divisions launched in 2009, reorganized and integrated resources, and integrated the internal business into three business groups: PBG / EBG / SMBG, which can better meet customer needs and improve internal operationseffectiveness.

Based on the release of internal synergies, the company’s net profit continued to improve in the first three quarters of 19, and it rose by 4 in 3Q19.
.

97 points.

In the process of intelligent video surveillance, the company’s products have moved from AI center products to AI front-ends. For entry products, we believe that based on the advancement of AI chip computing power and software algorithms, the video surveillance industry has transformed from analog to digital → networked → high-definition → intelligentThe development of the trend can also present stronger consumer electronics and Internet features for civil security.

Hikvision began to deploy deep learning in 13 years, officially established Hikvision Research Institute in 14 years, launched AI center products based on GPU and deep learning technology in 15 years, and launched AI based on GPU / VPU and deep learning technology in 16 years. Front-end and entry products. Based on its own “fluorite” platform in 18 years, it has been focusing on packaging a variety of SaaS common components around application scenarios for customers. It has comprehensively enriched product lines in the AI era and has continuously enhanced product added value.

Haikang comprehensively plans the Internet of Things through the AI Cloud computing architecture + the material information fusion data platform. With the expansion of the Internet of Things, if the massive amount of alternative data generated by various terminals is converged to a cloud computing center for centralized processing, it cannot meet the rapid business developmentThe demand for response is limited to network scale, storage resources, and computing power.

Therefore, after completing various AI hardware layouts, Hikvision proposed an AI cloud computing architecture composed of edge routers, edge domains and cloud centers for IoT applications in 17 years. In 18 years, it strongly unified the software technology architecture, which can be efficient.Quickly responded to the needs of various industries; in 19, it released a data fusion data platform that supports cross-intelligent IoT and information networks.

We believe that in the past 4 years, Haikang has completed the comprehensive layout from hardware, software to system platform, and is expected to fully benefit the all-round rise of the Internet of Things industry in the 5G era.

Platform companies that have fully benefited from the 5G Internet of Things and maintain a BUY rating. We expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 19-21.

35/1.

67/2.

03 yuan, reference industry average of 25 years.

02 times PE estimation, considering Haikang’s comprehensive layout of the Internet of Things from hardware, software to system platform, we give the company 28-30 times PE for 20 years, with a target price of 46.

75-50.

09 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risk warning: internal macro risks; intensified overseas competition; the advancement of intelligent 天津夜网 products is less than expected.

Jiuyang Co. (002242): Continuous high income growth, innovation and upgrading drive profit improvement

Jiuyang Co. (002242): Continuous high income growth, innovation and upgrading drive profit improvement

The company released its financial report for the third quarter of 2019.

The company achieved operating income in the first three quarters of 62.

55 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

02%, achieving net profit attributable to mother 6.

18 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

54%; of which, the operating income in the third and third quarters was 20.

68 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

98%, net profit attributable to mothers2.

12 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.

35%.

  The cooking machine performed well, and the shark brand grew rapidly.

In terms of categories, the growth rate 返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查of wall-cooking cooking machines reached more than 20% in the first three quarters, soymilk machines achieved positive growth for the fourth consecutive quarter, rice cookers and nutrition cookers achieved nearly 10% growth, and the three major categories contributed more than 60% of their revenue.

Following the initial launch of the Y88 cooking machine, the company introduced the highest-priced Y1 cooking machine, and the audience is expected to increase significantly after lowering the price.

Shark brand domestic sales contributed 70 million yuan in the first three quarters of the year, an increase from the end of last year (20 million yuan in the last year). Currently, a 200-ton Shark brand flagship store has been built.The steam mop, hand suction and vacuum cleaner introduced by Chinese consumers are expected to achieve volume.

In terms of different channels, online channels have grown by more than 20% and offline has achieved positive growth. The company will develop new retail channels that are directly operated, deepen interaction and communication with users, and improve user experience and transaction conversion rates.

  Product structure was upgraded and gross profit margin increased.

Thanks to the decrease in raw material costs and the improvement of the company’s product structure, the gross profit margin of Q3 increased by 1.

23pct to 32.

35%; sales expense ratio drops by 0 every year.

91pct to 13.

32%; increase in management expense ratio by 1.

18 points to 4.

60%, mainly due to the increase in labor costs and amortization of equity incentive expenses; the rate of research and development expenses fell to 0.

82 points to 3.

28%; financial expense ratio increased by 0 in ten years.

66 points to -0.

13%; net interest rate has decreased by 0 every year.

71pct to 10.

04% Q3 sales repayments improved month-on-month, and inventory and receivables had a long turnover.

Q3 Net cash flow from operating activities increased by 5 per year.

5 billion to 7.

US $ 4.5 billion, an improvement from the previous two quarters, mainly due to good sales receipts, including cash received for selling goods and providing services.

45 ppm to 33.

7 billion.

Third quarter inventory balance 7.

08 million yuan, the inventory turnover days exceeded 6 increase.

09 days to 46.

41 days, the balance of accounts receivable4.81 trillion, accounts receivable turnover days increased several times 5.

31 days to 14.

06 days.

Turnover of inventories and receivables has improved compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the drag in the first half of the year, and Q3 has improved.

  Investment suggestion: The company continues to develop R & D and innovation, and constantly introduces new products. While adhering to the ascent of value, it will launch more mid-to-low price segments to broaden the consumer population.

In overseas markets, the collaboration with sharkninja is expected to bring the company’s revenue and profit expansion.

Maintain EPS forecast for 19-21.

11/1.

24/1.

38 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 19-21 year earnings 20/18 / 16X, maintain “Buy” rating.

 无锡桑拿网  Risk warning: New product sales are less than expected, raw material prices fluctuate, and industry competition is intensifying

Antu Bio (603658): Continued High R & D Investment Expects Pipeline Volume

Antu Bio (603658): Continued High R & D Investment Expects Pipeline Volume

2019H1 results are in line with our expectations Antu Bio announced its 2019H1 results: operating income11.

79 trillion, a 39-year increase of 39.

03%; net profit attributable to parent company 3.

20 ppm, an increase of 29 in ten years.

85%, corresponding profit 0.

76 yuan.

The performance basically met our expectations.

The development trend maintained rapid growth, and cash flow was under pressure in the short term.

The company still maintains a rapid growth trend in 2019H1, and realized non-net profit 重庆耍耍网 deduction from January to June3.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

62%.

We expect chemiluminescence to remain the company’s main source of growth.

Accounts receivable of the company in 2019H1 4.

410,000 yuan, an increase of 72 in ten years.

After 51% and 15% of the hospital system ‘s drug mark-up has been cancelled, there will be a certain degree of substitution for upstream funding pressure.

Net operating cash flow 3.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.

36%.

We expect that funding pressure from hospitals and dealers will improve, and the company’s cash flow situation will gradually ease.

R & D continued to be spent, and gross profit margin declined slightly.

The company maintained high R & D investment in the first half of 2019, and R & D expenses from January to June1.

3.9 billion yuan, accounting for 11.

81%, R & D and management costs increase by 0 every year.

95ppt, driving up the rate during the period.

89ppt to 33.

46%; product structural adjustment and price impact, comprehensive gross profit margin 65.

35%, down by 1 every year.

37ppt.

The product line is constantly enriching, and we look forward to 100-speed light and assembly line.

The company has now realized the full layout of the IVD segmentation field, and the pipeline is expected to break through in the future.

The Autof MS1000 mass spectrometer has grown steadily.

After the approval of 100-speed chemiluminescence, it is currently active in the grass-roots market, and we expect that there will be a performance elasticity of conversion in 2020.

IVD’s upstream raw materials continue to advance, and the company’s cost advantage will be initially realized in the future.

Earnings forecasts and estimates Taking into account factors such as product structure and prices leading to a decline in gross profit margin, we slightly lower our 2019/2020 earnings forecast2.

63% / 2.

78% to 1.

73 yuan, 2.

25 yuan, an annual increase of 28.99%, 30.

00%, currently corresponding P / E is 40X / 31X.

Considering the company’s 100-speed product grassroots market growth potential, we still maintain 78.

The target price of 00 yuan corresponds to 13 currently.

84% space, corresponding to P / E of 45X / 35X in 2019/2020, maintaining the recommended level.

Government control of risk inspection products, R & D risks.

CITIC Securities (600030) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Investment Bank Performance Boosts Comprehensively Launching Wealth Management Transformation

CITIC Securities (600030) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Investment Bank Performance Boosts Comprehensively Launching Wealth Management Transformation

Event: CITIC Securities disclosed the third quarter report of 2019, and the company realized operating income of 327 from January to September.

74 trillion, +20 for ten years.

45%; net profit attributable to mother 105.

22 trillion, +43 a year.

85%.

The best average ROE is 6.

68%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.

87 units.

Comment: Ready to transform into wealth management.

The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in 2019Q3 was 50.28 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47%.

Net income from brokerage fees of CITIC Securities in the third quarter of 201919.

40,000 yuan, an annual increase of 10%, an increase of 3%.

The brokerage business has shrunk significantly, and the annual growth rate far exceeds the average transaction volume of the industry as a whole. It is expected that the market share of the brokerage business will fall somewhat, which is in line with the company’s development strategy of comprehensive transformation 杭州桑拿 to wealth management in the second half of this year.

CITIC Securities has a higher percentage of institutional customers than its peers and has a significant advantage in changing trends.

Science and technology projects have abundant reserves, and investment banking business has grown significantly and steadily.

Net income of the company’s securities underwriting business in Q3 201911.

7.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 73%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44%.

Since the beginning of this year, CITIC Securities has completed 22 IPOs (10 in the same period last year) and 21 additional IPOs (24 in the same period last year). The number of IPOs ranks first in the industry.

In terms of amount, the IPO gradually raised 276.

US $ 3.8 billion, a sharp increase of 140% previously; underwriting of corporate bonds + corporate bonds was 1,637.

04 trillion, an increase of 54% in ten years.

CITIC Securities has participated in 5 IPOs of the science and technology board, and has served as the sponsor of 11 science and technology board companies, ranking fourth among all securities firms. At present, the science and technology board and the floating profit total 2.

5 billion, ranking first.

Investment income has steadily increased.

The company achieved net income from asset management business in Q3 201914.

34 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 17%, a month-on-month increase of 5%.

The company reports overall net investment income (including changes in fair value) 46.

US $ 5.3 billion, with an annual growth rate of 227% and a 95% increase from the previous quarter, which includes the investment surplus of direct investment subsidiaries in the science and technology board.

The company is still shrinking the property rights pledge business, cleaning up the existing business to prevent risks, and continued to accrue credit impairment in the third quarter.

03 trillion, accumulatively accumulate 7 from January to September.

2.5 billion.

At the end of the reporting period, the scale of the company’s financial investment assets reached 338.5 billion yuan, an increase of 13% over the beginning of the year, of which transactional financial assets accounted for 86% of the total scale, mainly due to the increase in the scale of bond investment, an increase of 18% over the beginning of the year.

At the end of the first half of 2019, the company’s asset management scale was 12,969.

1.3 billion, a decrease of 3% compared with the end of last year, of which the scale of active management was 5,631.

1.1 billion, an increase of 1 over the end of last year.

9%.

The company reduced the scale of its channel business in an orderly manner and enhanced its proactive management capabilities.

Investment suggestion: Despite the weak growth of the brokerage business, it still maintains the inherent advantages of each business sector. The transformation of wealth management is an inevitable trend. Leading securities firms will benefit first, and the transformation is in line with the business structure of CITIC Securities. On October 30, 2019, the China Securities Regulatory Commission unconditionally merged and reorganized 100% of Guangzhou Securities through CITIC Securities by issuing shares to purchase assets.

The merger will improve CITIC Securities’ weakness in regional network layout, and more importantly, benefit from the financial policies of the Greater Bay Area to help develop.

We expect the CITIC Securities EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

19/1.

42/1.

63 yuan (the original predictor 1).

18/1.

37/1.

56 yuan), BPS is 13.

95/14.

96/16.

05 yuan, the corresponding PB is 1.

57/1.

46/1.

36, ROE is 8.

54% / 9.

52% / 10.

14%.

We maintain a PB estimate of 2x 2019 results, with a target price of 28 yuan, and maintain a “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Sino-US trade frictions are repeated, downward economic pressure is increasing, and financial supervision is becoming stricter.

Haitian Flavor (603288): Revenue growth remains stable, net interest rate hits new record high

Haitian Flavor (603288): Revenue growth remains stable, net interest rate hits new record high

Event: Haitian Flavor released its 2019 Interim Report, and achieved operating income of 101 in 2019H1.

60 trillion, ten years +16.

51%; realized net profit of 27.

51 ppm, +22 for ten years.

35%; operating income of 46 in the second quarter of 2019.

7 billion, previously +16.

00%; realized net profit of 12.

74 ppm, +21 for ten years.

83%.

Revenue growth remained stable, and adjustments to sauce products improved significantly.

2019H1 revenue growth rate of 16.

51%, of which Q2 is 16.

00% compared to the first quarter of 16.

95% small amplitude 0.

95pcts.

The advance payment for 2019H1 is 12.

80 ppm, an increase of 41 per year.

12%, considering the channel status and inventory are reasonable, the company’s delivery rhythm is stable, and Q2 single season interest rate is not 南宁桑拿 scary.

In terms of products, the three core products of 2019H1, soy sauce / soy sauce / oyster sauce, increased by +13 respectively.

61% / 21.

13% / 7.

48%, compared with the annual growth rate of -2 in 2018.

24 / -4.

89/4.

93 items, of which the adjustment effect of sauce products was obvious. Among them, sauces achieved a growth rate of 6% in the first quarter of 2019. Through a series of adjustment plans such as channels, product announcements, product specifications, and quality, it is estimated thatImprovement is expected to continue.
The decline in expense ratios has continued to increase the net interest rate.

2019H1 company net profit is 27.

08% for one year.

29pcts; of which the net interest rate for 2019Q2 is 27.

28%, ten years +1.

31 cases, single quarter profitability has improved.

(1) Gross profit margin for sales in H1 201944.

86% every year -2.

25pcts, of which 2019Q2 sales gross margin was 43.

78% per year -3.

81%.

The Sino-U.S. Trade friction has caused the company’s soybean purchase price to increase by nearly 10% as a major factor in the decline in gross profit margin.

In addition, the capital expansion entry cost brought by technological transformation has dragged down gross margin performance. The capital expansion of technological transformation is expected to be 700 million yuan.2) The sales expense ratio / administrative expenses (including R & D) ratio of 2019H1 are 11 respectively.

00% / 3.

97% -2 per year.

49 / -0.

19pcts; of which the sales expense ratio of 2019Q2 is 4.

57% a year -1.

01.

The decrease in sales expense ratio was mainly due to the company’s separation of freight from a small amount of products at the beginning of this year. Some distributors adopted a self-collection method to reduce the company’s transportation costs. In addition, the release of the Jiangsu factory ‘s production capacity and expansion of the company ‘s sales scale reduced the sales costspositive effects.

In an operating environment where overall demand continues to be weak and costs are rising, the company has once again demonstrated its ability to traverse cycles through active marketing changes and excellent cost management capabilities.

The cost side continues to rise or start a new round of price increase cycle. The company aims to achieve the goal successfully.

In the long term, deep channel cultivation and category expansion will continue to promote the company’s transformation into a condiment platform company.

Profit forecast and investment rating.

We maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-21 to 1.

92/2.

30/2.

75 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 51/43 / 36X, maintain the “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: food safety issues, macroeconomic growth, category expansion is less than expected.

Lin Yang Energy (601222) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Photovoltaic Continued Growth, Smart Turning Point Visible

Lin Yang Energy (601222) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Photovoltaic Continued Growth, Smart Turning Point Visible

Investment 西安耍耍网 Highlights The company released its 18-year annual report and 19-year quarterly report: The company realized operating income of 40 in 18 years.

2 ten percent, an increase of 11 per year.

9%, realizing net profit attributable to parent company7.

600 million, an increase of 10 in ten years.

9%, net profit of non-attributed mothers was realized7.

4 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.

6%, performance was slightly higher than expected.

A cash bonus of 1 is paid for every 10 shares.

75 yuan (including tax).

In Q1 19, the company realized operating income6.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 19 in ten years.

1%, realizing net profit attributable to the parent company1.

6 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.

6%, the net profit of deducting non-attributed mothers1.

500 million, a five-year growth of 5.

3%, performance was in line with expectations.

The turning point of the smart sector is imminent, benefiting from the ubiquitous layout of the Internet of Things: the company’s smart sector has achieved revenue for 14 years.

300 million, through domestic market breakthroughs, to suppress domestic demand fluctuations.

In 2018, the company achieved overseas sales of US $ 38.05 million and orders in hand amounted to US $ 48 million.

At the same time, the company, as a global meter leader, is expected to benefit significantly from the ubiquitous power IoT construction bonus, and the construction of the “three types and two networks” terminal layer opens up a new blue ocean of smart terminal demand.

High-quality power station projects are in hand, and the trend of parity is worry-free: the scale of the company’s holding of power stations has been reduced to 1 since the end of 18 years.

45GW, power generation exceeded 7.

500 million to realize power generation revenue1.

33 ppm, an increase of 21% per year.

The company reserves item 1 in hand.

Above 6GW, and actively distribute distributed projects after parity.

The recent implementation of the parity policy is conducive to the orderly expansion of the company’s power station scale.

N-type battery efficiency breakthrough, EPC first year victory: the company’s high-efficiency N-type battery mass production conversion efficiency exceeded 21.

8%, and started the TopCon technology upgrade.

At the same time, with N-type high-efficiency products, EPC’s first year revenue exceeded 1 billion, and established cooperative relationships with core operators at home and abroad.

The company plans to realize the development and construction of 300-500MW power stations in 2019, including the deployment of overseas business of 100-200MW, to achieve the basis of continuous growth in performance, and to promote the application and penetration of N-type high-efficiency products.

Investment suggestion: We have adjusted our profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

53 yuan, 0.

64 yuan, 0.

77 yuan, corresponding (included on April 25) PE is 10.

3 times, 8.

5 times, 7.

1x, initial prudent increase in rating. Risk warning: The installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics does not meet expectations; the expansion of overseas business does not meet expectations; domestic competition is intensifying.

Blue Flame Holdings (000968) Quarterly Report Comment: The first three quarters of performance growth and cash flow improved significantly

Blue Flame Holdings (000968) Quarterly Report Comment: The first three quarters of performance growth and cash flow improved significantly
The company’s profit in the first three quarters increased by ten years.9%, the cash flow has improved significantly. The company released three quarterly reports. The company achieved net profit attributable to its mother in the first three quarters of 20195.06 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.9%, EPS is 0.52 yuan.The company’s increase in profit in the first three quarters was mainly due to the company’s continued promotion of the old wells in the old blockchain and the transformation of old wells to achieve stable production and increase production.At the same time, the company strengthened its operation and management, and strived to increase revenues, reduce costs, and reduce costs and efficiency.The company’s other revenues recognized in the first three quarters of 2019 (mainly including subsidies for CBM sales and alternative tax refunds) were 2.24 ppm, a reduction of 0 per year.1.1 billion.The company’s net operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2019 was 4.50,000 yuan, an increase of 61 in ten years.5%. In terms of quarters, the company achieved a single quarter net profit attributable to its parent in 19Q1-31.2.6 billion, 2.08 ppm and 1.7.3 billion, an increase of 16 in the first half of 19Q3.0%, down 16 from the previous month.9%. In the first half of the year, the company’s coalbed methane sales and tonnage increased by 5.7% and 13.4% coalbed methane sales business: CBM extraction in the first half of the year7.400 million cubic meters (previously +2.6%), sales of coalbed methane3.700 million cubic meters (decade +5.7%), the number of units is calculated according to the sales volume1.74 yuan / square (ten years +13.4%), unit cost is 0.95 yuan / square (ten years +15.5%), the unit gross profit is 0.79 yuan / square (ten years +11.1%).In addition, in the first half of the year, the company has temporarily confirmed the compensation for the development and utilization of coalbed methane based on the previous year’s standard1.3.9 billion, an increase of 0 every year.1.6 billion or 12.7%. Gas well construction engineering business: revenue in the first half of the year 1.81 ppm, a decrease of 1 per year.11 ppm or 38.0%, mainly due to the decline in the demand for gas well construction engineering construction business of related coal enterprises in the first half of the year, resulting in excessive reduction in engineering construction business volume. The subsidiary newly won the bidding of the Heshun Mafang East exploration block, and the commitment of the coal mining methane right of Jinmei Group has been completed. According to the interim report, the company won the bids of Liulin Shixi, Wuxiang South, Heshun Hengling and Heshun West in November 2017. 4Blockchains.As of July 31, 2019, geological mapping of 610 square millimeters and two-dimensional earthquakes of 369 were completed in four blocks.At 31 inches, 122 holes were drilled, 53 were fractured, and 19 wells were tested. According to the announcement of the Natural Resources Department of Shanxi Province, in the first half of this year, Shanxi Province conducted public tenders for 10 new exploration blockchain projects. 合肥夜网 Hongdong West Blockchain, Hongdong Blockchain, Linfen Blockchain, Linfen West Blockchain, LinfenThe South Blockchain and other five blockchain bidding units are less than three and do not meet the requirements of the Bidding and Bidding Law. The above five blockchain tenders will be reorganized in a timely manner, and the subsidiary Lanyan CBM has won the remaining five districts.Heshun Mafang East Blockchain (block area 253.82 square inches).According to the company’s announcement, on August 15th, the subsidiary Lanyan Coalbed Methane has gradually contracted with the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources for the exploration right.In addition, the controlling shareholder Jin Coal Group’s coalbed methane mining rights commitments have been completed, and Lanyan Coalbed Methane has obtained the Chengzhuang Coal Mine, Sihe Coal Mine (East District), Zhengzhuang Minefield’s coalbed methane mining rights, and Hudi Minefield’s coalbed methane exploration.Rights and resources security capabilities have been further enhanced. Profit forecast and investment advice The company has good internal epitaxy growth, reintegration of low-production wells, redevelopment of old wells to increase production, further improvement of gas pipelines, clear coalbed gas mining rights, etc. The company’s subjective and objective emptying rate will decline, and the sales gas volume is expected to gradually increase; Reorganization, the new successful bidding for blockchain exploration and development is progressing smoothly. As a state-owned enterprise in Shanxi Province, the company’s ability to acquire resources has been transferred, and its expansion can be expected.The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.78, 0.84 and 0.94 yuan / share, taking into account the company’s historical estimation of the hub and the company’s performance growth rate, given 19 times 18 times PE, corresponding to a reasonable value of 14.1 yuan / share, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the price of natural gas and coalbed methane will decrease; the preferential treatment will be reduced and the sales compensation policy will be changed;

Hongfa shares (600885) 2019 first quarter report review: HVDC trend does not change, cars and GM perform poorly

Hongfa shares (600885) 2019 first quarter report review: HVDC trend does not change, cars and GM perform poorly

This report reads: Hongfa’s performance is in line with expectations. Q1 domestic new energy vehicle sales doubled the company’s high-voltage DC relay sales, and GM and traditional automotive businesses performed well due to industry-wide factors. It is expected to improve in the future.

Investment Highlights: Maintain Overweight rating.

The company’s performance is in line with expectations, maintaining the EPS for 2019-2021.

07, 1.

29, 1.

59 yuan, maintaining a target price of 36.

4 yuan to maintain the level of overweight.

Performance was basically in line with expectations.

The company released the 2019 first quarter report, of which Q1 achieved revenue of 16.

$ 2.5 billion, growing by 1 every year.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

57 trillion over five years.

61%, the performance was basically in line with expectations.

The rapid growth of power relays resumed, and the growth rate of HVDC is expected to exceed 50%.

The company’s power relays are blooming at home and abroad: 1) benefiting from the increase in the market share of the British and French power grids and the rapid development of the Southeast Asian market, the company’s overseas market maintains a rapid growth rate; 2) the domestic market from the 19th State Grid first tenderThe overall demand has risen rapidly. Through the follow-up of the 09 version of smart meter replacement progress, it is expected that the internal power relay market will resume a rapid growth trend.

In terms of high-voltage DC relays, Q1 domestic new energy vehicle sales have doubled as a whole, and the company as an industry leader 苏州桑拿网 is expected to grow more than 50%.

GM and automotive relays performed poorly due to industry influence.

According to the data from the China Automobile Association, Q1 auto production and sales in 2019 were 633.

570,000 and 637.

240,000 vehicles, a decrease of 9 per year.

81% and 11.

32%; of which Hongfa ‘s main domestic and American standard sizes have been expanded, the overall speed is higher than the industry average, and the distance of the company ‘s automotive relay replacement is expected to be affected by this.

General relays are also affected by the adjustment of demand in the home appliance industry and intensified market competition, and their overall performance is not good.

Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales are less than expected, exchange rate changes

Ren Zeping: Ranking of China’s Urban Development Potential in 2019

Ren Zeping: Ranking of China’s Urban Development Potential in 2019

As a guide, we propose a standard analysis framework that is widely adopted: “Real estate looks at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term.”

  At present, China’s urbanization is entering the era of urban agglomerations. The real estate market has entered a new stage of development, with regional differentiation. The long-term real estate mechanism is rapidly changing. The “one-city, one-strategy” upgrade has huge differences in urban development potential. Urban researchBecomes particularly important.

  In this research, we have refined and quantified the classic framework for more than a year. Based on the previous 60 indicators and more than 100,000 data, we screened out 27 indicators and about 50,000 data to establish multi-dimensional and multi-level.The verifiable fundamentals of the city’s development potential + market-side evaluation model ranks the thematic development potential of the 336 prefecture-level administrative units except Sansha City, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan.

  This study is of reference value for recognizing the potential of urban development, for the government to establish a long-term mechanism, to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, for residents to live and work in peace, and for business investment decisions.

  Abstract Research background and analysis framework: The real estate market has entered an era of urban agglomeration with equilibrium and regional differentiation.

1) Background: Real estate has entered a new cycle, and urban development has entered the era of urban agglomerations.

China’s population aged 20-50 peaked in 2013, with the ratio of existing housing units to nearly one.

1 The acceleration of the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism marks a departure from the high-growth stage of the Chinese real estate market and a new era and new cycle of transformation and development.

In the medium to long term, the three major dividends of urbanization, improved housing and urban renewal will support the steady development of China’s real estate market in the future.

From a regional perspective, China has entered the era of urban agglomerations, with prominent regional differentiation, huge differences in urban development potential, and more prominent urban research value.

2) Analysis framework: fundamental analysis trend and market analysis timing.

Fundamental analysis is the core of the research and judgment of urban development potential, and the key lies in the research and judgment of the population. The logical chain is: people follow the industry, industry determines the rise and fall of the city, and location factors such as economies of scale and transportation costs determine the industrial layout.

We focus on the demand-side population status, population potential and purchasing power, as well as supply-side housing stock and land financial dependence on a total of 23 indicators.

On the market side, four short-term indicators, such as the housing price cycle, demand overdraft rate, destocking, and land-price-to-price ratio, are used to determine the heat of the urban market to determine the timing of entry based on fundamental analysis.

Backtesting based on historical data, the accuracy is 75%.

  Fundamentals: Ranking of China’s urban development potential in 2019.

1) Overview of the list: In 2019, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Guangzhou ranked among the top 4 in the medium- and long-term development potential list. Among the second-tier cities, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, and the top ten residences; 32 cities in the eastern region entered the topFifty, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta region is particularly outstanding; more than 80% of the cities in the Northeast are behind 200.

The top 100 cities use 13% of the country’s land to gather 50% of the population, create 73% of GDP, and account for 62% of the country’s commercial housing sales.

2) Population status: The population continues to gather in big cities, and core cities in the central and western regions have risen.

From a regional perspective, the population is returning to central and western provinces such as Wanchuan, Guiyu, and eastern provinces, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, and the population has co-existed. The population growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Heiheji, and Liaoning is sluggish or even negative.

From the perspective of the split-line cities, the population continues to flow into the first- and second-tier cities, the third-tier cities’ overall inflows are basically balanced, and the fourth-tier cities continue to pass.

From the perspective of key cities, the population of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou has increased, and the core cities of Xi’an, Chengdu, and Changsha have risen. The population growth of eastern cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou, and Wuxi has increased.

3) Population potential: People follow the industry, and the foundation and potential of the first and second line industries are outstanding.

First and second-tier cities with 25.

5% of the population created 46.

5% of GDP, the potential for population agglomeration is great.

In terms of industrial innovation, the effects of the first- and second-tier cities are significant. The proportion of listed companies and the total number of invention patents authorized account for about 70% and 75%, of which the absolute highlands in Beijing and Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, etc.City first.

In terms of transportation location, the number of high-speed railways from the first to the second-tier cities’ transportation hubs is as high as 740 and 149, respectively. The eastern region benefits from physical geography and the first to develop strategic transportation infrastructure.

In terms of public resources, high-quality education in first- and second-tier cities, intensive medical resources, and urban rail transit improve urban operating efficiency.

4) Purchasing power: The absolute purchasing power of first- and second-tier cities is higher, while the relative purchasing power is lower.

At an absolute level, per capita savings deposits in first-tier cities have disposable incomes as high as 11.

5, 6.

60,000 yuan, far higher than other cities.

From a relative level, first-tier, second-tier, third-tier, and fourth-tier cities have house price incomes of 20 respectively.

8, 10.

6, 8.

4, 6.

0 years, but because of insufficient supply in first-tier cities, housing prices are not determined by the median income group, but by high-income groups.
5) Housing supply: Housing supply in first- and second-tier cities is tight, and land finance in second- and third-tier cities is relatively high.

Housing supply in first- and second-tier cities is tight, and the ratio of dwellings is 0.

97, 1.

02. There is excess risk in the Northeast, and the ratio of registered households exceeds 1.

.

1.
In the east and central regions, the financial dependence of land is relatively high, at 57% and 52%, respectively; in second and third-tier cities, it is higher at 64% and 50%, respectively.

  Market: When is the best layout of the top 100 cities in 2019?

1) Overview of the list: Based on the fundamental analysis, the top 100 development potentials are classified into 3 levels based on market conditions. Among them, 15 cities such as Shenbei, Shanghai and Guangzhou are the first grade, and 25 cities such as Chengdu and Wuhan are the second grade. Lanzhou, Xuzhou and other 60 cities are third gear.

2) Volume and price trends: Demand in some third- and fourth-tier cities is clearly overdraft, and transaction volumes in some first- and second-tier cities have picked up, and the market is expected to stabilize.

The housing prices in some first-tier and second-tier cities and surrounding areas that have undergone significant adjustment will gradually stabilize, such as insufficient supply or some growth pressure; the sales volume surged by the monetization of the shed in the early stage, and some third-tier and fourth-tier cities lacking fundamental supportAdjust risk.

3) Destocking: In the western region, fourth-tier cities have higher overall inventory risks.

From the perspective of saleable inventory, in January 2019, the first, second, and third and fourth tier sample cities’ inventory de-removal cycles were 11 respectively.

7, 10.

5, 11.

In four months, third- and fourth-tier cities have risen since the second half of 2018.

From the perspective of generalized inventory, in the western region of 2017, the land digestion cycles of fourth-tier cities were 2 respectively.

5, 2.

1 year.

4) Land acquisition cost: In 2018, the land price and housing price dropped from the overall level, and a few cities were still higher.

In the March 2019 sample of 100 cities, the premium rates for the transaction of residential land in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier and fourth-tier cities were 4, respectively.

2%, 21.

6%, 21.

4%, of which second-tier cities have been on the rise for 4 consecutive months, and third- and fourth-tier cities have been on the rise for 5 consecutive months.

In 2018, the first-tier, second-tier, third-tier, and fourth-tier cities had land price-to-price ratios of 29%, 25%, 19%, and 13%. Except for the first-tier cities, which increased slightly by one compared with 2017, the second-tier, third-tier, and fourth-tier cities decreased respectively.7, 5, 2 single.

  Embrace urban agglomerations and seize megatrends.

The productivity of the metropolitan agglomeration, led by the central city, saves land and energy, is the main platform to support China’s economic growth and 北京桑拿洗浴保健 development, and is the focus of China’s current and future development.

In 2019, 96 of the top 100 cities with development potential are located in 19 major urban agglomerations, and 54 of them are located in 24 million-level metropolitan areas.

From the perspective of per capita production efficiency, the per capita GDP by size has been decreasing from large to small; cities with more than 10 million people have 14 million GDP per capita, which is 2 to 3 million cities.

One time, about five times that of cities with less than 200,000 people.

At the scale of the urban agglomeration, the core of the 19 urban agglomerations lies in five urban agglomerations, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Chengdu and Chongqing.

It is estimated that by 2030, about 80% of China’s 2 billion new urban population will be distributed in 19 urban agglomerations, of which about 60% will be distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu-Chongqing, Central Plains, ShandongSeven urban agglomerations such as the Peninsula.

At the metropolitan area scale, there are 24 metropolitan areas with more than 10 million people.

7% of the land gathers 33% of the population to create about 54% of GDP. Among them, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen Wanhui, Guangfozhao and other metropolitan areas have obvious development potential.

Outside the metropolitan area, there are still two types of third- and fourth-tier cities that deserve attention: one is the third- and fourth-tier cities where the economic strength of the eastern coastal areas is more prominent, and the other is the distance from the central metropolis, the size of the population in the jurisdiction or hinterland.Large inland regional central cities are located in multiple urban agglomerations.

  The implementation of a real long-term real estate mechanism will help the market develop steadily and healthily, which is also the common expectation of the people, the government, and enterprises.

The key to a long-term mechanism lies in the link between people and land, financial stability, and strategies based on the city.

For cities where housing prices are too high due to continuous population inflows and insufficient land supply, land supply is increased; for cities with excessive population and excessive stock supply due to excessive land supply, land supply is reduced; supply and demand balance is achieved through human-land connection to solve population and landSeparation, supply and demand mismatch caused the first and second tier housing prices are too high, the third and fourth tier inventory is too high.

From the experience of the United States, Britain, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, etc., excessive financial leverage on real estate is the source of risk, and monetary and financial stability is the root cause. To avoid excessive currency issuance, excessive leverage and excessive borrowing by residents, passVarious means such as currency, finance, budget, land, etc., support rigid demand and improvement demand, and restrain throwing demand.

  Risk warning: there is a certain deviation in the model prediction; some indicators have not released the 2018 data, which affects the model estimation; the logic of the tourist city is different from other cities, and the model is not considered separately.
Table 1 Research background and analysis framework: The real estate market has entered an era of balanced and regionally divided urban agglomerations.
1 Research background: Real estate enters a new cycle, and urban development enters the era of urban agglomerations.

2Analysis framework: Fundamental analysis trend, timing of market analysis2 Fundamental: Ranking 2 in China’s urban development potential in 2019.

1Overview of the rankings: Shenzhen North and Shanghai top the list, regional center cities and the Yangtze River Delta Pearl River Delta perform well, and Northeast China lags behind.

2 Population status: The population continues to gather in big cities, and the core cities in the central and western regions rise.

3 Population potential: People follow the industry, the foundation and potential of the first and second line industries are outstanding 2.

4Purchasing power: The absolute purchasing power of first- and second-tier cities is relatively high, and the relative purchasing power is sufficient.

5 Housing supply: housing supply is tight in first- and second-tier cities, and the financial dependency of second- and third-tier land is relatively high. 3 Market: When will the top 100 cities be best in 2019?

  3.

1 Overview of the list: Top 100 development potential 3 points 3.

Volume and price trends: Demand in some third- and fourth-tier cities is clearly overdraft, and transaction volume in some first- and second-tier cities has picked up. Housing prices have stabilized3.

3 Inventory removal: In the western region, the overall inventory risk of fourth-tier cities is relatively high.

4 Cost of land acquisition: Land prices and housing prices have fallen as a whole, and a few cities are still high. 4 Embrace urban agglomerations and grasp the megatrend. 1 Research background and analysis framework: The real estate market has entered a balanced and regionally divided urban agglomeration era.

1 Research background: Real estate enters a new cycle, and urban development enters the era of urban agglomerations. From an overall perspective, the population aged 20-50 peaked in 2013, the demand growth has passed, and the ratio of existing housing units is nearly 1.

1 The acceleration of the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism marks a departure from the high-growth stage of the Chinese real estate market and a new era and new cycle of transformation and development.

On the demand side, the scale of China ‘s 20-50-year-old main home buyers reached expectations in 2013, with new housing starts in 2011 and 2013 reaching more than 14 billion square meters in double peaks, and 2018 sales of commercial housing reached 14.

800 million square meters, probably the starting point of budget history.

According to the current population development trend, China’s population will peak around 2024. If subsequent fertility is encouraged, the peak time will be repeated up to 2031.

On the supply side, since the reform and opening up in 1978, especially since the housing reform in 1998, Chinese urban residents have basically achieved a historic leap from Tongzilou to residential quarters, from dwellings to basic livables.To 0.

8 rose to close to 1.

1, indicating the end of the era of housing cancellation.

On the policy scale, the real estate planning thinking has undergone a major change, gradually transitioning from a short-term policy to a long-term mechanism construction.

Over the past 20 years, China ‘s actual adjustment target has repeatedly repeated between steady growth and controlling house prices. It has shifted its mindset to focus on restraining demand and increasing supply, focusing on short-term changes to a long-term mechanism, gradually taking measures to reduce administrative burdens, and reducing the increase in housing price adjustment.

In December 2016, the central government clearly defined “the house is used for living, not for speculation”, and began to propose the establishment of a basic system and long-term mechanism to promote substantial and healthy development. The practical ideas gradually moved from short-term policies to long-term effects.The transition of mechanism construction has changed from a game of chess across the country to the policy of the city, and from a commodity attribute to a housing system that highlights the residence attribute.

  In the medium to long term, the three major dividends of urbanization, improved housing and urban renewal will support the steady development of China’s real estate market in the future.

The first is the urbanization bonus.

Urbanization of China’s Permanent Population in 201859.

6%, with an estimated average urbanization level of about 80% and other growth space, and the urbanization rate of the registered population is only 43.

4%, the civic space is even greater.

The second is the living improvement bonus.

At present, the rate of complete sets of urban housing with kitchens and bathrooms is only 85%, and 20% of households live in poor-quality bungalows. The per capita housing area is less than 25 square meters, which is a significant gap from developed economies.

As China ‘s economy continues to grow and incomes increase, and the size of households is becoming smaller, the per capita housing area has increased further.

The third is the urban renewal bonus.

With the growth of the housing stock market, the housing stock is renewed, and the scale of demolition and reconstruction will continue to rise.

Generally speaking, the average annual demand of China’s real estate market will be about 1.1 to 1.3 billion by 2030. Although the demand is large, the scale is still large.

(See the December 2018 report of the Evergrande Research Institute, “Continuation of the traditional cycle, or is the long-term mechanism broken?

— Prospects for the Real Estate Market in 2019》) From a regional perspective, China has entered the era of urban agglomerations, with prominent regional differentiation, huge differences in urban development potential, and more prominent urban research value.

In the era of housing, the development potential of cities is not very different, but in the era of overall housing balance, the development potential of cities is significantly different.

The housing stock ratio is low, the industry is strong, and the population has the potential for alternative development in cities. The housing stock ratio is high, the industry is weak, and the cities with a continuous population lack development potential.

In this context, it is important to judge the development potential of different cities.
From the international and Chinese experience, population migration is divided into two stages: from rural to urban migration, and to the urban agglomeration in the middle and late stages of urbanization.
Although China has proposed to take urban agglomerations as the main form of urbanization since the “11th Five-Year Plan” in 2006, it has clearly promoted the construction of urban agglomerations and started a new type of urbanization construction started in 2014. 19 urban agglomeration plans have been issued successively.

In November 2018, the State Council’s “Opinions on the Establishment of a New Mechanism for a More Effective Regional Coordinated Development” called for the establishment of a central city to lead the development of urban agglomerations, and urban agglomerations to drive a new model of regional development and promote the integration and interactive development of regional plates.

In view of the immature development of most urban agglomerations, the central government takes metropolitan areas with large cities as the core as the breakthrough point and starting point for the construction of urban agglomerations.

In February 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of a Modern Metropolitan Area”, which requires the construction of a one-hour commute circle in the same city direction, marking China’s entry into the era of urban agglomerations.

In fact, in the past few years, housing prices in first-, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities have clearly differentiated, which is a direct manifestation of the significant differences in urban development potential.

In the first and second tier cities, due to the increase in population, insufficient land supply skyrocketed in 2015-2016; in the third and fourth tier cities, inventory was high for a time, and later, due to destocking policies, it rose sharply in 2017-2018.

1.2Analysis framework: Fundamental analysis trend, market analysis timing Based on the classic framework of “real estate long-term population, medium-term land, short-term finance”, we have 27 indicators from the two dimensions of “fundamental + market”Study the development potential of 336 prefecture-level administrative units in China in 2019 (excluding Sansha), and specifically judge the mid-to-long-term development potential of cities based on fundamentals, and use the market to assist in timing.

  Fundamental analysis is the core of the research and judgment of urban development potential. The key is to judge the population trend. The logical chain is: people follow the industry, and the industrial layout is determined by the location.

First, real estate looks at population for a long time, and population determines demand.

Population is the foundation of all economic and social activities, and it is the fundamental support for the development of the real estate market.

Due to the sharp decline in the number of births, China’s population increased by only 5.3 million in 2018, and the total population will peak in 2024-2031. Each region has gradually entered the era of the population game of population competition.

The fundamental driving force of population migration is the gap between actual income and living standards. The general rule is that people go with the industry and people go higher.

Second, industry determines the rise and fall of cities, industry rises and cities rise, and industry gathers population.

At present, China’s economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a development stage. From the mid-low end of the global value chain to the mid-to-high end, the regional industrial structure has changed significantly.

At the regional level, a large number of manufacturing industries along the eastern coast have been affected by rising costs, and have already moved to the Chinese mainland and Southeast Asia.

From the perspective of urban agglomerations, core cities in developed urban agglomerations are clustering high-end manufacturing and high-end service industries, and general manufacturing is shifted to the surrounding areas. Manufacturing clusters in developing metropolitan areas continue to cluster and develop to core cities, and the general urban industrial structure outside the urban agglomerationPresent low-end manufacturing and low-end service industry.

Third, location determines the industrial layout, and economies of scale and transportation costs determine location.

The industrial layout of enterprises is aimed at maximizing profits, and regional location selection is necessary.

However, location factors are not static, and changes in factors such as economies of scale and transportation costs are included.

The key to the first development of the eastern coastal areas of China is not the policy of opening up first, but the location of the coast is conducive to exports; globally, about 60% of the total economic volume is concentrated within 100 kilometers of the coast.

High-end manufacturing and high-end service industries are clustered in core big cities, mainly due to cost reductions and increased efficiency brought by economies of scale.

  Specifically, we focus on the demand-side population status, population potential, and purchasing power of the population, as well as the supply-side housing stock and land financial dependence on a total of 23 indicators.

Among them, the current status of the population is divided into two dimensions: size and structure, including indicators such as immigrant population, population age structure, urbanization rate, and primary school students.

Based on the basic logic of “people follow the industry, people go higher”, we analyze population potential from four aspects: economic strength, industrial innovation, transportation location and public resources.

In addition to the economic aggregate, we use the economic-population ratio (regional economic aggregate / population ratio) as the overall population attractiveness to reflect the size of the economy, the number of listed companies with A + H shares, and the number of invention patent authorizations to reflect regional advanced industries and innovationAbility to reflect the location of traffic by the number of high-speed rail departures to the end, the density of the highway network, the distance to the central city, the number of college students, the number of practicing (assistant) doctors, and the density of the urban rail transit network of the highway.Medical resources, public transportation and other public resources.

In terms of purchasing power, we focus on absolute levels of per capita savings, human-dominated income, and relative levels of house-to-income ratios.

On the supply side, we focus on two indicators: the ratio of dwelling units and the dependence on land finance; of which, the ratio of dwelling units reflects the overall balance of the existing housing market, and the dependence on land finance reflects the dependence of local governments on real estate and related land transfer preference.

  On the market side, four short-term indicators such as destocking, housing price cycle, demand overdraft rate, and land-price-to-price ratio are used to determine the short-term changes in the urban market to determine the timing and priority of entry based on fundamental analysis.

Some cities even look at the medium and long-term development potential from the basic surface, but if the short-term demand overdraft is severe, the potential will still be developed in the short term.

We use four short-term indicators to reflect the market, including the land digestion cycle, the housing price cycle, the demand overdraft rate, and the land price to housing price ratio.

Due to incomplete data on saleable inventory, we use the general inventory depletion index of the land digestion cycle to reflect the urban house inventory.

The housing price cycle reflects whether urban housing prices are currently in a predetermined position, whether they are growing or falling, and the relevant duration.

The demand overdraft rate is the degree of change between the current growth rate of residential sales area and the growth rate in the past few years. If it deviates from the past average value, it is likely to mean a risk response.

The land price-to-price ratio can roughly reflect the current cost-benefit ratio of real estate companies’ land acquisition, but if there is no introduction of population and industries, regions with low land-price-to-price ratios also lack development potential.

  In addition, most short-term financial indicators have national identity and small regional differences, so the model consideration range is not divided.

Financial policies (interest rates, liquidity growth, credit, down payment ratio, etc.) are not only one of the main tools for macroeconomic transformation in various countries, but also the policy that has the most significant impact on short-term changes in the real estate market.

Housing development and purchase are highly dependent on bank credit support. Policies such as interest rates, down payment ratios, and credit will affect the ability of residents to pay, as well as the developer’s withdrawal of funds and expectations, and the impact on supply and demand changes in the housing market.

  All the data in this article come from public sources, including the national and local statistical bureaus, government public information, Wind, and some real estate professional data agencies.
For some regions or indicators that have not yet released 2018 data, we will use 2017 data instead.
  In terms of data processing, in order to eliminate the dimensional difference of the original data, the “optional-selection” method is adopted for the standardization of the original data.

Among them, for monotonically increasing indicators, linear conversion is 0-100, and for monotonically decreasing indicators, linear conversion is 0-100.

  In terms of weight processing, the analytic hierarchy process is used to set specific index weights from top to bottom, and the weight settings are optimized by back-testing historical data.

In the 2015-2016 data backtest, the accuracy of the model for ranking is 75%, and the goodness of fit to the index is 62%.

  2 Fundamentals: China’s urban development potential ranks second in 2019.

1 List overview: Shenzhen North and Shanghai top the list, regional center cities and the Pearl River Delta in the Yangtze River Delta perform outstandingly, and the Northeast is generally lagging behind. According to GDP, per capita disposable income of urban residents, and the political structure of the city, the country is divided into 337 prefecture-level units and above.It is a city of one, two, three and four, of which Sansha City is not included in the list because of the lack of duplication of public data.

Four first-tier cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with GDP of more than 2 trillion in 2018; second-tier cities are municipalities other than first-tier cities, multiple provincial capital cities, planned single cities and GDPs greater than 700 billion and urban residents’ per capita disposable income of 40,000 yuanThere are a small number of developed prefecture-level cities with a total of 35; third-tier cities are a small number of weak provincial capital cities and other prefecture-level units with a GDP of more than 200 billion US dollars; 85 fourth-tier cities are the remaining prefecture-level units with a GDP of less than 200 billion yuan.Each.

  In 2019, Shenbei, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Guangzhou ranked top 4 in the medium- and long-term development potential list. Among the second-tier cities, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Hangzhou ranked among the top 10; 32 cities in the eastern region entered the top 50, and Northeast China hadOver 80% of the cities are behind 200.
The top 100 cities gather about 50% of the population with 13% of the country’s land and create about 73% of GDP, accounting for about 62% of the country’s commercial housing sales.

Shenzhen has the highest urban development potential, followed by Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.

Among the second-tier cities, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin, and Hangzhou rank among the top 10; Zhengzhou, Changsha, Xi’an, Jinan, Hefei and other provincial capitals, Xiamen, Qingdao and other planned cities, Suzhou, Dongguan, Foshan and other developed citiesTier Cities entered the top 20.

The capital cities of the province except Hohhot, Yinchuan, Xining, and Lhasa all rank in the top 50.

Among the top 50 cities, there are 32 in the eastern region, 6, 8, and 4 in the central, western, and northeast regions, respectively.

Except for municipalities directly under the Central Government, provincial capitals, and cities with separate plans, the top 50 prefecture-level cities are mostly located in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, including 8 Yangtze River Delta city clusters, 4 Pearl River Delta city clusters, Haixi city clusters, and Shandong PeninsulaThere are 2 city clusters each.

In terms of different regions, the proportion of cities ranked after 200 in the east, central and western regions is 4 respectively.

6%, 22%, 64.

1%; 30 cities in Northeast China rank behind 200, accounting for 83 of the prefecture-level units in the region.

3%, the development potential is generally lower.

It should be noted that the development potential index synthesized after each index is standardized has only a certain ordinal meaning.

2.

2 Population status: population continues to gather in big cities, the rise of core cities in the central and western regions. From a regional perspective, the current population returns to the central and western provinces such as Wanchuan, Guiyu, and eastern provinces, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang.Population growth is sluggish or even negative.
From the reform and opening up to around 2010, the population moved to export-oriented coastal developed areas on a large scale.

Since 2010, industrial transformation and upgrading in the transitional coastal areas, industrial undertakings in the central and western regions, and the growth of the older generation of migrant workers, some of the population has gradually returned to the central and western regions, and the population growth rate in the eastern region has slowed down, while the population in the northeast region has begun to grow negatively.

The current population return is obvious in Anhui, Sichuan, Guangxi, Henan, Guizhou and other provinces. The average annual increase of the permanent population in Anhui rose from -330,000 in 2000-2010 to 370,000 in 2010-2015, and then increased to 2015-2018.In the year of 600,000, Sichuan rose from -560,000 to 320,000, and then increased to 460,000.

The resident population growth in Guangdong, Zhejiang and other provinces was once significantly offset by the return of population, but the population re-obviously gathered in 2015-2018, with the current average annual increase of 1.66 million and 660,000 respectively.

Jiangsu replaced 520,000 in 2000-2010 from 250,000 in 2010-2015 and 250,000 in 2015-2018. There was no significant improvement. The population agglomeration difference between Jiangsu and Guangdong was similar to the difference in economic development, and the overall economy of the two places began in 2016.Gradually widen.

  From the perspective of the split-line cities, the population continues to flow into the first- and second-tier cities, the third-tier cities’ overall inflows are basically balanced, and the fourth-tier cities continue to pass.

From 1982 to 2017, the average annual growth rate of the first- and second-tier cities was significantly higher than the national average, and the first-tier cities had a higher growth rate, indicating a long-term net inflow of population and a greater concentration in first-tier cities.

Among them, from 1991 to 2000, from 2001 to 2010, and from 2011 to 2017, the average annual growth rate of population in first-tier cities was 3.

9%, 3.

4%, 1.

5%, second-tier cities are 1.

9%, 1.

8% and 1% indicate that the population migration in first- and second-tier cities since 2011 has been vertical but still agglomerated. The reasons for this include Beijing-Shanghai controlling people, aging migrant workers returning, and so on.

In the above three periods, the annual average growth rate of the total population of the third and fourth lines was 0.

63%, 0.

29%, 0.

44%, while the average national population growth rate is 1.

04%, 0.
57%, 0.
52%, indicating that underpopulation has been flowing back since 2011, but that net decline continues.

Among them, the average annual growth rate of population in third-tier cities from 2001 to 2010 and 2011 to 2017 was 0.

50%, 0.

44%, basically unchanged from 0 nationwide.

57%, 0.

52% of the population growth rate; the average annual population growth rate of fourth-tier cities is zero.

14%, 0.

38%, significantly lower than the national average.

  From the perspective of key cities, the population of Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Hangzhou has increased, and the core cities of Xi’an, Chengdu, Changsha and other central and western cities have started to grow. The population of eastern cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou, and Wuxi has grown significantly.

The past two decades have witnessed profound changes in the pattern of urban agglomeration.

Except for Beijing and Shanghai, which have taken the initiative in 2013, other cities have recently been “grabbing people”, but they are different.

From 2000 to 2010, the top five cities with the largest average annual increase in resident population were Shanghai, Beijing, Suzhou, Shenzhen, and Tianjin, with an average annual increase of 66, 61, 37, 34, and 310,000.

From 2010 to 2015, the top five cities with the largest average annual increase in resident population are Tianjin, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Zhengzhou, with an average annual increase of 50, 42, 22, 20, and 180,000.

From 2015 to 2018, the top five cities with the largest average annual increase in resident population were Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Xi’an, with an average annual increase of 55, 47, 26, 24, and 230,000; Chengdu, Zhengzhou, and Chongqing (mainly(City) The average annual increase of the resident population also exceeds 150,000, while the traditional population agglomeration cities Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou, and Wuxi have an average annual increase of less than 50,000. Beijing has sustained negative growth for two years from 2017 to 2018, and Tianjin once experienced negative growth in 2017.
  Judging from the household registration situation, there are a large number of immigrants in major cities, and there is a lot of room for localization of the population. The deepening of the reform and transformation of the household registration system will help release part of housing demand.

The central government requires that, with the exception of Beijing and Shanghai, a few megacities, other cities need to open up and settle down restrictions.

At present, the difference between the resident population and the registered population is more than 5 million people. There are 6 cities in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Guangzhou, and Tianjin. Among the 2-5 million people, there are 5 cities in Suzhou, Foshan, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, and Ningbo.There are 15 cities with 1 to 2 million people and 18 cities with 500,000 to 1 million people.

The 44 cities mentioned above may be municipalities directly under the Central Government, provincial capitals, and cities with separate plans, or developed cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the west side of the Strait.

In recent years, under the background of the reform of the household registration system and the “grabbing war”, the registered population of some large cities has grown rapidly.

In 2018, the registered population of Xi’an, Chengdu, Wuhan and Guangzhou increased by 86 compared with the previous year.

6, 40.

8, 30.

1, 29.

80,000 people, mainly due to the increase in household registration machinery.

2.

3 population potential: people follow the industry, the first and second tier industry foundation and potential highlight the first and second tier cities to 25.

5% of the population created 46.

5% of GDP, the potential for population agglomeration is great.

The current first-tier city is 5.

2% of the population created the country12.

3% of GDP, 20 in second-tier cities.

3% of the population created 34.

With a GDP of 1%, the population share of the third-tier cities and the economic share are basically the same, respectively 33.

9%, 34.

0%, the population expenditure of fourth-tier cities clearly exceeds the economic share, which are 39.

7%, 24.

5% (due to statistical problems, the total regional GDP differs from the national total).

From the perspective of economic-population ratio, in 2017, the number of cities in the first, second, third, and fourth tiers was 2, respectively.

4, 1.
7, 1.
0, 0.

6; From the perspective of the tertiary industry-population ratio excluding the industrial factor, in 2017, the number of first-, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities was 3 respectively.

2, 1.

7, 0.

8, 0.

5.
From the perspective of economic growth, from 2015 to 2017, the average annual economic growth rate of first-tier, second-tier, third-tier, and fourth-tier cities was 7 respectively.

5%, 7.

9%, 7.

8%, 6.

8%, the fourth-tier economy has a small base, but the growth rate is still weak.

From a regional perspective, the areas with relatively low economic growth in recent years are the areas where water has been squeezed by data such as Liaoning and Shanxi, and remote areas such as Northeast and West, where the economic growth rate is mostly below 6%; while in many central regions, the economic growth rate is 8Between -10%, more than 10% in parts of the southwest.

Generally speaking, the population of the future will continue to converge towards metropolitan areas and regional central cities, and the population of third- and fourth-tier cities will continue to change in the future.

  In terms of industrial innovation, the top effect of first- and second-tier cities is obvious, with absolute highlands in the depths of Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Chengdu.

The urban difference of industrial innovation is more obvious than the economic strength. This is mainly because innovation requires a high degree of concentration to be more efficient.

Judging from the number of A + H-share listed companies reflecting leading enterprises, Beijing accounts for 10% of the country.

7%, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen combined accounted for 27.

5%, a total of 69 in the first and second tier cities.

9%.

From the perspective of the number of invention patents granted, Beijing has occupied the country’s top 14 because of its advantages in production, education and research resources.

4%, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen accounted for 26 in total.

8%, the proportion of first- and second-tier cities reached 75.

5%.

The third-tier cities that rank relatively high in terms of industrial innovation are mainly Shaoxing, Changzhou, Taizhou, Jiaxing, Zhuhai and other cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.

  In terms of transportation location, the number of high-speed trains at the high-end of the first- and second-tier urban transportation hubs is 740 and 149, respectively. The eastern region benefits from natural geography and the first to develop strategic transportation infrastructure.

From the perspective of physical geography, the eastern coastal areas have the first-mover advantage.

Under the strategy of the first development in the east, the transportation infrastructure such as high-speed rail and expressways has developed rapidly, especially in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.

From the perspective of high-speed rail accessibility, the average daily high-speed rail services of first-, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities are 974, 460, 155, and 54; currently, 107 cities have not opened high-speed rails, mainly in the central and western regions.

In terms of the number of trips from the beginning to the end of the high-speed railway day, the average number of first-, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities is 740, 149, 17, and 6 respectively, of which Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin, Tianjin, Changsha, and Xi’an rank among the top ten in the country.

From the perspective of highways, the difference in road network density between first-tier and second-tier cities and third-tier and fourth-tier cities is still very obvious, which are 1001, 506, 330, and 99 km / 10,000 square kilometers respectively. Fourth-tier cities are only 10% of first-tier cities.

In 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission’s “Medium and Long-term Plan for the Railway Network” required that on the basis of the “four vertical and four horizontal” high-speed railways, a “eight vertical and eight horizontal” main passage be used as a skeleton, regional connection lines be connected, and intercity railways be replaced.High-speed railway network.

Among them, the eight verticals refer to the coastal passage, the Beijing-Shanghai passage, the Beijing-Hong Kong (Taiwan) passage, and Beijing-Harbin?
Beijing-Hong Kong-Macao Channel, Hunan Channel, Beijing-Kunming Channel, Bao (Silver) Sea Channel, Lan (West) -Guangzhou Channel; Baheng refers to Suiman Channel, Jinglan Channel, Qingyin Channel, Along the Yangtze River Channel, Shanghai-Kunming Channel, XiamenChongqing channel, Guangkun channel.

  In terms of public resources, quality education in first- and second-tier cities, intensive medical resources, and urban rail transit improve urban operating efficiency.

Public resources are supporting the development of the industry. High-quality public resources are obviously attractive to the population.

From the perspective of education, municipalities and provincial capitals often have the highest quality primary and secondary school and higher education resources in the region. The number of 985/211 universities in total accounts for 81% of the country, and the number of college students owns 58% of the country;Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai rank among the top three in the country in terms of a college entrance rate.

From the perspective of medical resources, the number of practicing (assistant) physicians per 1,000 population in the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities was 3.

2, 3.

1,2.
2, 1.

9, and the quality of medical resources is vastly different, the country’s best quality medical resources are mainly concentrated in first-tier and second-tier cities.
From the perspective of urban rail transit, according to the latest approvals from the official websites of the city subway companies and the Development and Reform Commission, as of March 2019, there were 35 cities with urban rail transit (excluding trams) in the country, and the number of cities that had been approved for non-opening increasedTo 45.

Tier 2 cities in Taiyuan, Hohhot, Nantong, Quanzhou, and Yantai have not yet opened urban rail transit, and Tier 3 cities are currently only open in Wenzhou.

In addition to the three second-tier cities in Taiyuan, Hohhot, and Nantong that have been approved for opening subways, they include seven third-tier cities including Baotou, Xuzhou, Changzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Wuhu, and Luoyang.

2.

4 Purchasing power: The absolute purchasing power of first- and second-tier cities is relatively high, and the relative purchasing power is only the per capita storage of first-tier cities, and the disposable income is as high as 11.

5, 6.

60,000 yuan, far higher than other cities.
Absolute purchasing power is completely disposable income, and should also include per capita savings deposits. Although the current “storage and moving” phenomenon is obvious, it still reflects the relevant situation.

Judging from the per capita savings deposits of urban and rural residents, the number of Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities in 2017 was 11.

5, 6.

60,000 yuan, 4 for third-tier and fourth-tier cities.

1, 3.

20,000 yuan.

From the perspective of disposable income of urban residents, the number of Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities in 2017 was 6.

4,4.

50,000 yuan, third-tier and fourth-tier cities are 3 respectively.

6, 3.

10,000 yuan.

In addition, Baotou, Ordos, Hohhot and other resource-based cities have higher per capita deposits and disposable income.

  First-tier, second-tier, third-tier, and fourth-tier cities have house price incomes of 20 respectively.

8, 10.

6, 8.

4, 6.

0 years; but because of insufficient land supply in first-tier cities, housing prices are not determined by median income people, but by high-income people.

In 2017, first-tier, second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities had house price income of 20 respectively.

8, 10.

6, 8.

4, 6.

In 0 years, the inter-city differentiation was significant, which is consistent with the higher housing price income in other core cities around the world.

Among them, the price-to-income ratio of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen is 26.

5, 22, 21.

4 years; housing prices in second and third-tier cities in Sanya, Xiamen, and Fuzhou are also high, at 31.

2, 24.

2, 21.

For five years, Sanya was a national tourist city, and house prices were mainly affected by the purchase of houses by outsiders.

In principle, in markets where supply and demand are basically balanced, house prices are determined by median income people; in markets where supply is significantly greater than demand, house prices are determined by low-income people; in markets where supply is significantly less than demand, housing is determined by high-income peopleDecide.
Moreover, it is obviously different from foreign countries. Due to cultural differences, there is a “six wallets” phenomenon in Chinese people ‘s house purchase, that is, parents and other children ‘s financial support usually resist each other, which usually deviates from the traditional house income ratio.

However, considering the fact that the indicators and data cannot be better relative to the purchasing power in reality, the ratio of house price to income is still used here.
2.

5 Housing supply: Housing supply in first- and second-tier cities is tight, and financial dependence on land in second- and third-tier cities is high. Housing supply in first- and second-tier cities is tight.
97, 1.

02, there is excess risk in the Northeast, and the ratio of occupants exceeds 1.
.

1.
We reported in November 2018, “China’s Housing Stock Estimation: Surplus or Surplus?

》 Public housing unit ratios of provincial and prefecture-level units in 2017 were published.

By region, in 2017, the ratio of urban occupants in the eastern, central, and western regions, including students and their dormitories, was 0.

99, 1.

05, 1.

03, 1 in Northeast China.

13; The ratio of households excluding students and their dormitories in the eastern, central, and western regions is 1.

02, 1.

09, 1.

08, 1 in Northeast China.

17.

In terms of lines, the occupancy ratio (including students and their dormitories) in the first-, second-, and third- and fourth-tier cities in 2017 was 0.

97, 1.

02, 1.

06. Housing supply in first- and second-tier cities is tight.

Of the 336 prefecture-level units nationwide (excluding Sansha), in 2017, 89 cities had a home ownership ratio of less than 1, accounting for 26.

5%; there are 157 cities with a residential unit ratio of 1.
.

0-1.

Between 1, accounting for 46.

7%; the ratio of households in 72 cities is between 1.

1-1.

Between 2 accounts for 21.

4%; the ratio of households in 18 cities is higher than 1.
.

2, accounting for 5.

4%.

  In the east and central regions, the financial dependence of land is relatively high, which are 57% and 52% respectively; the second- and third-tier cities are 64% and 50%, respectively, which are higher than those of the first- and fourth-tier cities.

To a certain extent, the degree of land financial dependence means that local governments depend on house prices.

In terms of different regions, the land financial dependence (land transfer income / local general public budget income) in the eastern and central regions in the past three years was 57% and 51, respectively.

7%, higher than 31 in the west and northeast.

6%, 19.

4%.

This is due to the relatively weak demand in the west and northeast, and the ability of real estate to stimulate the economy is limited.
In terms of lines, the land financial dependence of second- and third-tier cities in the past three years was 64.

2%, 49.

5%, higher than 42 in first-tier cities.

2% and 35% in fourth-tier cities.

Among them, Shanghai and Shenzhen’s land financial dependence were 25% and 26%, while Beijing and Guangzhou reached 50% and 68%.
Of the 336 prefecture-level units (excluding Sansha) in the country, 16 cities have financial dependence on land greater than 100%, accounting for 4%.

8%; 31 cities are between 70% and 100%, accounting for 9%.

2%; there are 98 cities between 40% -70%, accounting for 29.

2%; there are 191 cities below 40%, accounting for 56.

8%.

3 Market: When will the top 100 cities be best laid out in 2019?

  3.

1 List overview: Top 100 development potentials are divided into 3 levels. Based on fundamental analysis, we have classified the Top 100 Development Potentials into 3 levels based on market conditions. Among them, 15 cities including Shenbei, Shangguang, and Chengdu are listed as first.25 cities are second gear, and Lanzhou, Xuzhou and other 60 cities are third gear.

The market is composed of four indicators: the inventory removal cycle, the demand overdraft rate, the housing price cycle, and the land price to housing price ratio.

We first divided the top 100 cities with three development potentials according to the development potential index, and then analyzed the market-oriented indicators to upgrade the cities with better current market trends, leaving other cities unchanged.

  3.

2 Volume and price trends: Demand in some third and fourth tier cities is clearly overdraft, transaction volume in some first and second tier cities is picking up, and house prices are stabilizing. In the early stage, sales volume surged due to the monetization of the shed, and some third and fourth tier cities lacking fundamental supportDemand overdraft risk.

For example, the sales growth rate of a city in the past 3-5 years has been below 20%. With little change in the fundamentals, the sales growth rate of a certain year has soared to about 50% and above. Such cities have a short-term existence.The risk of overdraft of demand is mainly from the third-tier and fourth-tier cities stimulated by the monetization of the shed reform.

Since 2017, sales of commercial housing in first-tier cities have declined significantly, and second-tier cities have remained basically the same. Third-tier and fourth-tier cities have continued to increase their share of housing by monetization and resettlement.

The sales volume of various tier cities has a rotating characteristic. The sales area of commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities increased by 14% in 2015, 10% and 26% in 2015 in second-tier cities, 26% in 2016, and 22% in third- and fourth-tier cities in 2016 and 2017.%, 13%, some of the third- and fourth-tier cities lacking fundamental support are obviously overdraft.

  From the perspective of the housing price cycle, housing prices in some first-tier and second-tier cities and surrounding areas that have undergone significant adjustments in the early stage will gradually stabilize, such as insufficient supply or some growth pressure.

From historical experience, in the past, housing prices in a large number of cities existed in a small cycle of about three years, rising a period of adjustment and a period of time. Behind the small cycle are changes in real estate, local dependence on land finance, demand release and overdraft.

From 2015 to 2016, housing prices in some cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and some provincial capital cities have been in a downturn for more than 2 years. At present, the transaction volume has improved and the market has gradually stabilized.

The first-tier cities include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the second-tier cities include Tianjin, Nanjing, Wuxi, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Jinan, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Dongguan, etc. The third-tier cities include Langfang, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Zhuhai, Huizhou, and Zhongshan.Wait.
In some early stages, housing prices have been mainly stimulated by the monetization of the shed reform. At the same time, third- and fourth-tier cities lacking fundamental support have certain adjustment risks.

  3.

3 Inventory removal: In the western region, the overall inventory risk of fourth-tier cities is relatively high. From the perspective of available inventory, the inventory de-removal cycles of the first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier and fourth-tier sample cities in March 2019 were 11.

7, 10.

5, 11.

In four months, the destocking cycle of third- and fourth-tier cities has increased since the second half of 2018.

The availability of saleable commodity housing data is poor, and we selected the sample cities for analysis.

4 cities for first-tier cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, 16 cities for second-tier cities: Tianjin, Chongqing, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Suzhou, Xiamen, Xi’an, Changsha, Ningbo, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Changchun, Hangzhou, Jinan,Nanchang, the third and fourth tier cities selected 9 cities: Xuzhou, Putian, Dongying, Wuhu, Jiaozuo, Nanping, Sanming, Luzhou, Anqing.

Since 2015, thanks to the shed reform monetization policy, the destocking cycle of sales in third- and fourth-tier cities has continued to decline. The lowest period in May-June 2018 is less than 7 months, but it has gradually increased.

In March 2019, the first, second, and third- and fourth-tier cities’ saleable commercial housing de-recycling cycles were 11 respectively.

7, 10.

5 and 11.

4 months.

It should be noted that the inventory de-removal cycle is very sensitive to sales. The sales volume of commodity housing in some cities is currently at historical low levels. Once the transaction is warmed up, the de-recycling cycle will obviously decline.

  From the perspective of general inventory, in the western region, the inventory of fourth-tier cities is relatively high, and the land digestion cycle in 2017 was 2 respectively.

5, 2.
1 year.
In view of different regions, the inventory in the eastern, central and northeast regions continued to improve, and the inventory improvement in the western region was obviously insufficient.

In 2017, the digestion cycle of land in the eastern, central and northeastern regions was all 1.

15-1.

35 years, compared to 2 in the western region.
5 years.

Looking at the dividing line cities, in 2017, the land digestion cycles of first-, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities were 0.

8, 0.

9, 1.

2, 2.

1.
Although first-tier cities were affected by the tightening of the reorganization started in 930 in 2016 and market sales continued to cool, the land digestion cycle was basically less than 1. The fourth-tier cities had weak sales and continued to increase land supply, and there were still inventory risks.

3.

4 Land acquisition costs: Land prices and housing prices have fallen compared to the overall situation, and a few cities are still relatively high. Recently, land transactions have picked up.

In the 2018 sample of 100 cities, the premium rates for residential land transactions in first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier and fourth-tier cities were 6, respectively.

1%, 12.

5%, 18.

1%, compared with 21 in 2017.

9%, 38.

3%, 45.

3% clearly interfered.

However, from the recent half-year data, land transactions have picked up. In March 2019, the premium rates for residential land transactions in the first-, second-, and third- and fourth-tier cities were four.

2%, 21.

6%, 21.

4%, of which second-tier cities have been on the rise for 4 consecutive months, and third- and fourth-tier cities have been on the rise for 5 consecutive months.

  The land price and housing price ratio have fallen, but the cost of land prices in a few cities is still high.

In 2018, the land price and housing price ratios of first, second, third, and fourth tier cities were 29%, 25%, 19%, and 13% respectively. Except that first-tier cities increased slightly by one compared with 2017, second-, third-, and fourth-tier cities fell by 7 respectively., 5, 2 subdivisions (because the price data for new houses at the prefecture level are incomplete, and the second-hand housing prices are used for analysis, the estimated land price-to-price ratio may be low).

Although the land price and housing price ratios of the various cities are not significantly different, the differences between specific cities are huge.

In addition, the current “price-limit, bid-for-price” land transfer model promoted by some cities has effectively stabilized the price of new homes, but it is easy to cause new homes to be snapped up under insufficient supply.

4 Embracing urban agglomerations and grasping the megatrends Urban agglomerations led by central cities are transforming production efficiency, saving land and energy, and are the main platforms that support China’s economic growth and development, and are the focus of China’s current and future development.

According to the fundamental ranking, 96 of the top 100 cities with development potential in 2019 are located in 19 major urban agglomerations, of which 54 are in 24 million-level metropolitan areas.

In November 2018, the State Council’s “Opinions on the Establishment of a New Mechanism for a More Effective Regional Coordinated Development” called for the establishment of a central city to lead the development of urban agglomerations, and urban agglomerations to drive a new model of regional development and promote the integration and interactive development of regional plates.

Based on the permanent population in the urban area of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the cities are divided into seven categories: more than 10 million, 5-10 million, 3-5 million, 1- 3 million, 500,000-1 million, 200,000-500,000, and less than 200,000.

From the perspective of per capita production efficiency, the per capita GDP by size has been decreasing from large to small; cities with more than 10 million people have 14 million GDP per capita, which is 2 to 3 million cities.

One time, about five times that of cities with less than 200,000 people.
From the perspective of per capita urban construction land, large cities obviously save more land resources, and the per capita GDP creation by scale shows an increase in scale from large to small. In 2017, the per capita construction land in cities over 1,000 years was only 74.

5 square meters, while cities with 1 to 3 million and below 200,000 are 117 respectively.

3, 135.

5 square meters.

  At the scale of the urban agglomeration, the core of the 19 urban agglomerations lies in five urban agglomerations, including Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Chengdu and Chongqing.
The 2014 National New Urbanization Plan (2014-2020) and the 13th Five-Year Plan require the construction of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Shandong Peninsula, the west coast of the Strait, Harbin, Central and South Liaoning, Central Plains, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River19 urban agglomerations, including Chengyu, Guanzhong Plain, Beibu Gulf, central Shanxi, Hubao Eyu, central Guizhou, central Yunnan, Lanzhou-Xining, Ningxia along the Yellow River, and the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.

Among them, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations are the three most mature ones, with 23% of the country’s 5% land area.

3% of the population created 39.

3% of GDP has become the main platform for China’s economic growth and development and participation in international economic cooperation and competition, and has now risen to the national strategy.

In addition to the three major urban agglomerations, Chengdu, Chongqing and Wuhan with Chengdu as the core, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have the most potential for development.
2% of the land area gathered 15.

5% of the population created 15.

6% of GDP.

Usually it is the Shandong Peninsula, the west coast of the Straits, the Central Plains, the Guanzhong Plain, Hachang, and central and southern Liaoning.

It is estimated that by 2030, about 80% of China’s 2 billion new urban population will be distributed in 19 urban agglomerations, of which about 60% will be distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu-Chongqing, Central Plains, ShandongSeven major urban agglomerations, such as the Peninsula (see Evergrand Research Institute’s July 2018 report “Migration of China’s Population”).

  In the metropolitan area coefficient, 24 metropolitan areas with a population of 10 million or more are 6.
.

7% of the land gathers 33% of the population to create about 54% of GDP. Among them, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen Wanhui, Guangfozhao and other metropolitan areas have obvious development potential.

The development of the current mainstream urban agglomerations is immature, and the production factors of some core cities are clearly overflowing to the surrounding areas. The central government has taken the metropolitan area with large cities as the core as a breakthrough point and a starting point for the construction of urban agglomerations.

In February 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of a Modern Metropolitan Area. This is China’s first central document with the theme of the “Metropolitan Area”, which requires the promotion of the foundations of large cities and surrounding areas for the same city.The integration of facilities, the strengthening of industrial division and collaboration among cities, the acceleration of the construction of a unified and open market, and the promotion of co-construction and sharing of public services, including the creation of a one-hour commute circle based on rail transit.

According to the relevant urban agglomeration plans and relevant local plans, China currently has 10 metropolitan areas with more than 20 million people, including Shanghai, Beijing, Guangfo Zhao, Hangzhou, and Shen Wanhui, and 14 1000 cities such as Chongqing, Qingdao, and Xiaquanzhang.10,000 to 20 million metropolitan areas.

There are 24 10 million-level metropolitan areas nationwide.

7% of the land gathers about 33% of the permanent population and creates about 54% of GDP.

From the perspective of development potential, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen Wanhui, and Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaozhou metropolitan areas are in front, followed by Su Xichang, Tianjin, Nanjing, Changzhutan, Hangzhou, and Chongqing.

It should be noted that some metropolitan areas overlap, and some Shanghai metropolitan areas and Hangzhou metropolitan areas overlap.

  Outside of the 24 metropolitan areas, there are still two types of third- and fourth-tier cities that deserve attention: the first group is third- and fourth-tier cities with outstanding economic strength in the eastern region, many of which are located inside urban agglomerations, such as Wenzhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, and Xuzhou, Haikou, Jinhua, Tangshan, Taizhou, Baoding, Weihai, etc.

Zhuhai, Zhongshan is the central city on the west bank of the Pearl River Estuary, with a population of 958 at the end of 2017.

70,000, is expected to become the next million-level metropolis.

Wenzhou, a coastal industrial and trade city with a developed coastal economy in Weihai; Tangshan and Baoding are located in the “Beijing, Tang and Qin” and “Beijing Baoshi” industrial development belts in the “three axes” of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development space layout.

The only city in this category that is not in the 19 largest urban agglomerations is Xuzhou, the central city of the Huaihai Economic Zone.

In the “Huaihe Ecological Economic Belt Development Plan” of the National Development and Reform Commission in 2018, the “Huaihai Economic Zone in the North” part of the National Development and Reform Commission clearly stated: “Efforts should be made to improve the radiation-driven capacity of the central city of Xuzhou, and play the role of the eastern starting point of the Lianyungang New Asia-Europe Continental Bridge Economic Corridor and the land-sea interchange hub.And promote the coordinated development of the Huaihai Economic Zone “, and is defined as the Huaihai Economic Zone including Xuzhou as the core of 3 provinces and 10 cities, with an area of 8.
.

90,000 square kilometers.

  The second category is the central and western regional central cities that are far away from the central big cities and have large population in the jurisdiction or hinterland, such as Luoyang, Baotou, Yinchuan, Ordos, Yueyang, Mianyang, Hengyang, Anyang, Guangan, Suining, Liuzhou, NanyangEtc. Most are also located in urban agglomerations.

Among them, Yinchuan is the provincial capital, Luoyang, Baotou, Ordos, Yueyang, Hengyang, Liuzhou, and Nanyang are the provincial sub-central cities of the province.

In addition, Yichang, Changde, Zunyi, Xiangyang, Ganzhou and other local central cities currently do not have one of the top 100 cities with development potential, but in the long run it is still sufficient for certain development potential.

  Source: Zeping Macro Articles: Ren Zeping, Evergrande Research Institute, Xiong Chai, Yan Kai, Li Zhenhui, Bai Xuesong Interns Jiang Wenkun, Gu Caixin, Xu Zheng, etc. have contributed here