Changan Automobile (000625): Changan Ford’s retail volume continues to grow sequentially and continues to grow

Changan Automobile (000625): Changan Ford’s retail volume continues to grow sequentially and continues to grow
Core point of view Changan Ford’s wholesale sales have decreased, the retail side has improved significantly, and the sales volume of the new Focus has increased.  Changan Ford sold 1 in August.480,000, 38 in the past.3%; cumulative sales from January to August 10.800,000, at least 60 in ten years.8%.From the retail point of view, Changan Ford sales reached 2 in August.140,000 vehicles, an increase of more than 30% from the previous month; sales of major models all increased sequentially, of which the sales of the new Focus increased by more than 60% from the previous month.It is expected that the new Focus Active, Sharp ST / ST-Line and Taurus will further promote sales in September.Corsair, Lincoln’s first domestic SUV, accelerated its landing.As the sales of new models of Changan Ford gradually expand, it is expected that sales will improve month-on-month in 9 months; after the new Lincoln models are launched, sales will be further improved.  Changan Mazda sales decline, the new Mazda 3 starts pre-sale.Changan Mazda sold 1 in August.30,000 vehicles, 20 in the past ten years.4%; cumulative sales from January to August 8.300,000, 26 in the past ten years.5%.From a retail perspective, Changan Mazda sold 10,000 units in August, with cumulative sales of 8 from January to August.720,000 vehicles.At the recent Chengdu Auto Show, the new generation of Mazda 3 Angkor Silla started pre-sale. It is expected to be officially listed at the end of September. After the new Mazda 3 is launched, it will promote the long-term sales of Changma.  Changan’s independent sales are growing, and new models such as CS75 PLUS are expected to drive sales growth.Changan autonomous sales in August 5.720,000 vehicles, an annual increase of 7.8%, the growth rate increased by 6.9 units.From the retail point of view, Changan sold 5 independently in August.09 million vehicles, an annual increase of 7.3%; cumulative sales from January to August of 45.840,000 vehicles, previously 18 per year.3%.Among them, Changan CS75 retail sales reached 1 in August.200,000 units, an increase of 55 in ten years.7%; sales from January to August 8.450,000 vehicles, at least twice a year.4%.At the Chengdu Auto Show, the new SUV model CS75 PLUS of Changan’s own brand was launched, which is expected to become another hot-selling product that comes with Changan; the Auchan X7 and Changan Auchan’s new models also appeared at the auto show.With the launch of CS75PLUS and other targeted models that improve product competitiveness, it will drive independent sales growth.  Financial forecast and investment advice: The forecast for 2019-2021 is 0.14, 0.87, 1.16 yuan, due to the company’s expectations, we use PB for estimation.Comparable companies have an average PB of 1 in 19 years.About 1 times, the company will be given PB1 in 2019.1x estimate, target price 10.74 yuan, maintain BUY rating.  Risk warning: Changan Ford sales volume is lower than expected risk, Changan Mazda sales 杭州夜网论坛 volume is lower than expected risk, Changan independent brand sales volume is lower than expected risk.